Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points
- AUD/USD | Bear Market Rally Signals Aussie Bull Trap
- Australian Dollar Correction Vulnerable to Pullback
- Near-term support at 0.6000
AUD/USD | Risk appetite has seemingly improved throughout the week amid policy relief from the Federal Reserve, which in turn has seen US equities soar. That said, this may also reflect a front running of month and quarter end portfolio rebalancing, where expectations are for notable inflows in equity markets given its underperformance relative to bonds over the quarter. However, we remain wary of this bounce and believe this is typical of a somewhat bear market rally. In turn, we see risks remain skewed to the downside for the Australian Dollar as its corrective uptick is faded with a failure to consolidate above 0.6000 confirming as much.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 6% | -3% | 2% |
| Weekly | 20% | -24% | -1% |
On the technical front, near term support is situated at 0.6004, which marks the global financial crisis low. However, a break below leaves the currency at risk of a retest towards the weekly low at 0.5700 before the 2020 at 0.5500.
Implied Weekly range (0.5850-0.6264)
| Support | Resistance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6004 | Oct’08 Low | 0.6090 | Weekly High |
| 0.5950 | - | 0.6271 | 76.4% Fib |
| 0.5700 | Weekly Low | 0.6300 | - |
AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame
Source: IG Charts
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
