Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Outlook
- Bears show more sway, yet still in control
- Will AUD/JPY rally further?
Multi-Year Low
On Friday, Aussie Dollar declined against Japanese Yen and printed 67.37- its lowest level in nearly 11 years. The price rallied after as some bears seemed to cover. Yet, the weekly candlestick closed in the red with 2.9% loss.
This week, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has abandoned oversold territory highlighting paused downtrend momentum
AUD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (JUn 11, 2018 – Mar 5, 2020) Zoomed Out
AUD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (SEP 1 – Mar 5, 2020) Zoomed IN
Looking at the daily chart, we noticed that on January 24 AUD/JPY declined then closed below the 50-day average providing a bearish signal. Few days later, the price broke then remained trading below the uptrend line originated from the Sep 3 low at 71.09, generating another bearish signal.
In late February /early March bears pressed the market to the lower end of current trading zone 71.87 – 69.49 then some of them eased up casing the price to rally eyeing a test of the high end of the zone.
A close above the high end of the zone could lead more bears to exit the market. This could push the price towards 72.68. Further close above that level might send the price even higher towards 75.27. In that scenario, the daily and weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in) should be considered.
On the other hand, any failure in closing above the high end of the zone may encourage bears to press towards the low end of the zone. Further close below this level opens the door for more bearishness towards 68.22. That said, the physiological support levels underscored on the chart should be monitored.
AUD/JPY FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART (FEB 11 – MAR 5, 2020)
From the four- hour chart, we noticed that today AUD/JPY broke below the uptrend line originated from the Feb 28 low at 69.37 eyeing a test of 70.08.
Thus, a break below the aforementioned above Feb 28 low could send AUD/JPY towards 68.50. Yet, the support level marked on the chart should be kept in focus. In turn, any break above 72.05 might cause a rally towards 72.50.
See the chart to find out more about key levels Cable would encounter in a further bearish /bullish scenario.
Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi
Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi
