News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hey traders! Get your Monday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/QO6zl1auQk
  • Really great article - apposite on International Women's Day but also a great read on the other 364 days of the year. @DailyFX h/t Weld Royal and Izaac Brook https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/03/08/Three-Women-Leaders-Changing-Finance-Economics-and-Business.html
  • $USDCHF has risen to fresh seven month highs today as the pair continues to trade above the 0.9300 level, at its highest levels since July of 2020. $USD $CHF https://t.co/spI5eIP3NM
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Germany 30 since Jan 09 when Germany 30 traded near 14,102.20. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/kBUVfEOnTp
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.07% Gold: -0.74% Oil - US Crude: -1.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/wUkbYkPr1x
  • 🇺🇸 Wholesale Inventories MoM (JAN) Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.3% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
  • 🇺🇸 Wholesale Inventories MoM (JAN) Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.3% Previous: 1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.28%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 79.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/nC2jX28Ra3
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.02% Gold: -0.60% Oil - US Crude: -0.69% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/k4tFM4iAaZ
  • ECB's Spokeswoman says weekly net purchases affected by seasonality amid large redemptions, temporarily delaying increase
Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Analyst

AUD Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD/USD | Upside Limited in Absence of US-China Trade Deal
  • AUD/NZD | Diverging Monetary Policy Sparks Further Losses

AUD/USD | Upside Limited in Absence of US-China Trade Deal

Despite growing signals that the Australian economy is slowing down, external factors and in particular, US-China trade war sentiment has kept AUD/USD afloat with the pair maintaining a foothold above 0.6800. That said, in the absence of an official phase 1 agreement between the US and China, upside in the pair looks to be somewhat limited. Near-term resistance is situated at 0.6870 (23.6% fib) while the descending trendline from the Dec’18 peak is likely to cap AUD/USD.

Implied weekly range (0.6785 – 0.6910)

Support

Resistance

0.6830

38.2% Fib

0.6870

23.6% Fib

0.6810

50-100DMA

1.3345

Trendline Resistance

0.6800

-

0.6930

October Peak

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Aug 2019 –Dec 2019)

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: IG

AUD/NZD | Diverging Monetary Policy Sparks Further Losses

Selling in AUD/NZD has shown little signs of easing up with cross marking a 4th consecutive weekly loss for the first time since March. Overnight, the RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand, had echoed similar comments made by Governor Orr, that the economy at a turning point and thus the outlook with regard to monetary policy is balanced. In contrast, the RBA look increasingly likely that they will be forced to ease further amid the continued deterioration in the Australian economy and thus the monetary policy divergence has placed pressure on AUD/NZD, while the stretched short positioning in the Kiwi relative to the Aussie also favours a lower cross.

On the technical front, while the outlook remains bearish, the positive DMI indicator is at somewhat excessive, which coincides with a notably elevated trend indicator and thus downside in the cross may begin to ease off around 1.0400. Failure to do so however, brings the trendline from the all-time low into focus at 1.0280, which we expect would become attractive to dip buyers on a risk-reward basis.

AUD/NZD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Jul 2018 – Dec 2019)

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: IG

AUD/NZD DMI and ADX Indicators: Daily Timeframe (Dec 2017 – Dec 2019)

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES