News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/lx3cMSpZNc
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfUNW0y https://t.co/n4NXZUovb0
  • Scoping out next week for trading the market, there are a range of high profile influences including September PMIs, Evergrande and a range of central bank decisions. Top listing on my docket is the #FOMC with my scenarios below. Full analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/18/SP-500-and-Dollar-on-the-Hook-for-Breaks-with-Evergrande-Fed-and-September-Trade-Ahead.html https://t.co/ZdoMJS9fp5
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/Q3Yfe6TMLw
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Strategist

AUD Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD/USD | Upside Limited in Absence of US-China Trade Deal
  • AUD/NZD | Diverging Monetary Policy Sparks Further Losses

AUD/USD | Upside Limited in Absence of US-China Trade Deal

Despite growing signals that the Australian economy is slowing down, external factors and in particular, US-China trade war sentiment has kept AUD/USD afloat with the pair maintaining a foothold above 0.6800. That said, in the absence of an official phase 1 agreement between the US and China, upside in the pair looks to be somewhat limited. Near-term resistance is situated at 0.6870 (23.6% fib) while the descending trendline from the Dec’18 peak is likely to cap AUD/USD.

Implied weekly range (0.6785 – 0.6910)

Support

Resistance

0.6830

38.2% Fib

0.6870

23.6% Fib

0.6810

50-100DMA

1.3345

Trendline Resistance

0.6800

-

0.6930

October Peak

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Aug 2019 –Dec 2019)

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: IG

AUD/NZD | Diverging Monetary Policy Sparks Further Losses

Selling in AUD/NZD has shown little signs of easing up with cross marking a 4th consecutive weekly loss for the first time since March. Overnight, the RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand, had echoed similar comments made by Governor Orr, that the economy at a turning point and thus the outlook with regard to monetary policy is balanced. In contrast, the RBA look increasingly likely that they will be forced to ease further amid the continued deterioration in the Australian economy and thus the monetary policy divergence has placed pressure on AUD/NZD, while the stretched short positioning in the Kiwi relative to the Aussie also favours a lower cross.

On the technical front, while the outlook remains bearish, the positive DMI indicator is at somewhat excessive, which coincides with a notably elevated trend indicator and thus downside in the cross may begin to ease off around 1.0400. Failure to do so however, brings the trendline from the all-time low into focus at 1.0280, which we expect would become attractive to dip buyers on a risk-reward basis.

AUD/NZD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Jul 2018 – Dec 2019)

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: IG

AUD/NZD DMI and ADX Indicators: Daily Timeframe (Dec 2017 – Dec 2019)

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES