EUR Analysis and Talking Points
- EURUSD | Downtrend Remains, Focus on Retest of Recent Lows
- EURGBP | Bullish Momentum Easing, 200DMA Pivotal
See the DailyFX Q2 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency throughout the quarter.
EURUSD| Downtrend Remains, Focus on Retest of Recent Lows
The trend for EURUSD remains on the downside, with momentum indicators across the long and short continuing to tilt on the bearish side. However, price action in the past month has been tepid at best with EURUSD on course for posting one its tightest monthly ranges in history. That said, eyes are on for a retest of the May 23rd low as gains remain limited with the pair failing to consolidate above 1.1200. Topside resistance is situated at 1.1265 whereby a close above could negate the near-term bearish bias. Of note, 1-week option expiries now capture next weeks ECB meeting, which implies a 65pip breakeven, however, risk reversals are only showing a slight premium for downside protection, which in turn suggests that the range may stay intact for now.
EURUSD PRICE CHART: Weekly Time Frame (Nov 2016 – May 2019)
EURGBP | Bullish Momentum Easing, 200DMA Pivotal
After a record run of gains in the cross as Brexit turmoil put GBP on the backfoot, the bullish momentum is beginning to ease following the rejection at 0.8840. Consequently, EURGBP appear to be showing some mild signs fatigue, however, for this to be confirmed, eyes will be on for a close below the 200DMA situated at 0.8787. If indeed a close below is made, this raises scope for a test of the 0.8700 handle. On the topside, a break above 0.8840 would bring 0.8870 (61.8% Fib) in focus.
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
