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GBPUSD Price Rattled by Local Election Results, Brexit Hangover & US NFPs

GBPUSD Price Rattled by Local Election Results, Brexit Hangover & US NFPs

2019-05-03 08:10:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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Sterling (GBP) Price and Latest UK Election Results and Brexit News

  • GBPUSD struggling to stay above 1.3000.
  • Local elections, Brexit and US NFPs all weigh on Sterling.

Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

GBPUSD Under Pressure and Creaking

Sterling is looking weak as we head towards a long weekend after the ruling Conservative faced a Brexit-backlash at the local elections and lost hundreds of council seats, weakening PM May’s hand further. With less than half of the election results in so far, the Conservative Party have already lost 441 seats, with the Liberal Democrats and Independent Parties picking up their seats. PM May’s handling of Brexit negotiations was widely attributed to be the main driver behind the losses with no clear plan yet agreed for the UK leaving the EU. The local elections losses are likely to increase calls for PM May to announce her departure date, or to stand down under pressure from within her party.

The monthly US Labour Report (NFPs) is released at 12:30 GMT with the market currently predicting new job creation of between 185k and 190k. The closely watched monthly average hourly earnings are predicted to tick higher to 0.3% from 0.1% while annual earnings are expected at 3.3%, up 0.1% from March.

DailyFX senior strategist Chris Vecchio will be covering US NFPs Live From 12:15 GMT today.

GBPUSD remains above 1.3000 but is continuing to give back this week’s gains as the US dollar continues to press towards fresh highs. Last Friday the US dollar basket (DXY) hit near two-year high at 97.84. The dollar basket is currently trading either side of 97.35. While cable may be drifting lower, there are various levels of support just under the current price especially between 1.2960 and 1.2970 where the down trend, 200-day moving average and recent horizontal support all meet. Below here, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2894 and the recent multi-week low at 1.2865. A bout of positive sentiment could see the pair test 1.3100 and 1.3177 but the later level will need strong momentum, probably sparked by positive fundamental news.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 3, 2019)

GBPUSD Price Rattled by Local Election Results, Brexit Hangover & US NFPs

Retail traders are 62.2% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data. See how recent daily and weekly positional changes affect GBPUSD and currently give us a stronger contrarian bearish bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling (GBP) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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