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GBPUSD Price Forecast - US Q1 GDP Will Drive Short-Term Volatility

GBPUSD Price Forecast - US Q1 GDP Will Drive Short-Term Volatility

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis

  • US Q1 GDP will make or break current US dollar strength.
  • GBPUSD at support and still oversold.

Q2 2019 GBP Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

Forex Markets Wait for US Q1 GDP

The Friday European morning session ahead of major US data releases is normally a quiet time, and today is no exception as traders step back from position taking ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP. As always, the devil is in the detail with one bank noting that today’s release includes data from a 35-day government shutdown period, so if Q1 2019 q/q GDP expectations of 2.2% - 2.3% are met, the US economy may be stronger than the headline figure shows.

Against this backdrop, GBPUSD remains either side of 1.2900 and propped up by 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2894. Cable broke below this level Thursday but then retraced higher, while today’s price action is limited and just above. Another break lower, and a close below this level, leaves GBPUSD vulnerable to a further sell-off down to the February 14 swing-low at 1.2771. Any sell-off may be tempered by the CCI indicator which continues to flash an oversold warning.

To the upside, prior support around 1.2960, and the 200-day moving average at 1.2969, make up the first zone of resistance.

Sterling Week Ahead Technical Analysis – GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPNZD.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – April 26, 2019)

Retail traders are 71.6% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. See how recent daily and weekly positional changes have changed our sentiment to a bullish GBPUSD bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling (GBP) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.