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AUD Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUDUSD | Beware of Exhaustion
  • AUDJPY | Key Fibo May Come into Focus
  • AUDNZD | Crucial Support Curbing Further Losses

See our Q1 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency throughout the rest of the year.

AUDUSD | Beware of Exhaustion

AUDUSD has made a break below both the 100 and 50DMAs. Eyes will be on a for a close below, which could potential raise the scope for a test of the 23.6% Fibo level (0.7067). Naturally, key support for bears to chase is at 0.7000. Momentum indicators however, offer caution to chasing AUD lower on what could already be an exhausted move. While signals remain bearish, the strength of the trend has eased slightly. Resistance situated around 0.7165-70.

AUDUSD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Dec 2017 – Feb 2019)

AUD Technical Analysis Overview: AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD

Chart by IG

AUDJPY | Key Fibo May Come into Focus

AUDJPY has made a decisive break through the 50DMA (78.60), however, support at 0.7800 has held for now. A break below would see the key 50% Fibo come into focus (77.65). Momentum indicators have shifted from neutral to bearish, although trend signals have weakened, consequently suggesting that the cross may remain in the 77.50-80.00 range.

AUDJPY PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Oct 2018– Feb 2019)

AUD Technical Analysis Overview: AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD

Chart by IG

AUDNZD | Crucial Support Curbing Further Losses

AUDNZD is trading at the lowest level since the Jan 3rd flash crash and now situated at crucial support (1.0400) which has curbed further downside. Momentum indicators are becoming increasingly bearish. As such, a break below 1.0400 could see a move towards 1.0350. However, given the size of the move in recent months (1.10 to 1.04) there is a risk of a pullback, with 1.06 the pivotal target.

AUDNZD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Jun 2018 – Feb 2019)

AUD Technical Analysis Overview: AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX