The EURGBP outlook shifts from bullish to bearish in the near term. The outlook determines how one can best construct non-US dollar cross trades. For example, GBPAUD longs are more favorable than EURAUD longs at the current juncture.
Weekly Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: The EURGBP is on the verge of completing a weekly key reversal (and J Spike). The reversal and resistance from the 50% retracement of the decline from the December 2008 high probably caps gains for at least several weeks. In Elliott terms, wave 3 within the 5 wave advance from 7751 is likely complete and a 4th wave is probably underway towards 8445. Weakness below 8575 would complete a near term head and shoulders top (see daily chart below).
FOREX Trading Strategy: Much like AUDNZD, the EURGBP outlook determines how I’ll construct cross trades. While EURCHF and EURAUD remain constructive, the EURGBP outlook suggests that GBPCHF (back to 14535) and GBPAUD longs are probably even better.
Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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British Pound / Australian Dollar
Weekly Candles
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: Combine AUDUSD breakdown potential and GBPUSD recovery potential and you get a bullish GBPAUD. There’s little need to overcomplicate things at this juncture; the GBPAUD is at the bottom of a 2 and a half year range and is going to complete a weekly key reversal (and J Spike) as long as price closes above 14701 tomorrow.
FOREX Trading Strategy: Long against 14620, target 15180.
Euro / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: Monday’s 5.41% range was the largest 1 day range since the 5/6/10 flash crash’s 8.88% range. Another leg lower is favored as long as price is below 12388 on a daily closing basis (so as not to create overlap). 12225/89 (breakdown level) is resistance (if reached) and levels of the interest on the downside are Fibonacci support at 11724 and the 1/17 low at 11646.
FOREX Trading Strategy: Looking lower for a drop into at least the mid-11700s but then expecting to turn bullish.
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
