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Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

2012-10-11 17:31:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses__body_eurcad.png, Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“I’m starting with the EURCAD because the pattern is clear. The advance from the August low is in 5 waves and therefore suggestive of an important longer term low. Expect weakness to prove corrective over the next several weeks. Price has taken out initial support from the 10/1 low and near term focus is on the 38.2% retracement at 12547. I’m looking for a short term low and rebound into 12650/85 before corrective weakness resumes.” The EURCAD found the short term low on Wednesday. The 38.2% retracement of the decline from 12806 held yesterday but price has returned to the level in short order. I’m looking to turn bearish at slightly higher levels. Levels of note are 12689 (2 = legs from 12575), 12718 (61.8%) and12763 (high day close).

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses__body_euraud.png, Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The EURAUD has reversed sharply from above 12800 but is showing signs of near term bearish exhaustion. 12536/85 is expected support for formation of a short term low.” The EURAUD spiked into 12506 last night and has recovered, nearly reaching Wednesday’s high thus far. I’m on the lookout for a top near 12702/21 (61.8% and high day close). Levels of note before 12702 are 12627 (38.2%) and 12665 (former intraday pivots).

Euro / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses__body_eurnzd.png, Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The EURNZD has reversed sharply but is showing signs of near term bearish exhaustion. Strength above 15833 could offer a bearish opportunity against the high for a run at 15584. Taking our cue from the EURCAD, a deeper decline throughout October could result in 15464 or the 61.8% retracement at 15348.” The EURNZD found low yesterday and has already retraced half of the decline (to the pip) from the top. Signs of failure at the 50% level are evident, especially on the hourly (J Spike at 11 am EST) but I’m uneasy being short Euros given EURUSD price action off of the low. I’d much prefer to wait for a setup at slightly higher levels; notably the 61.8% at 15864 or 15900, which produced tops twice in September.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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