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Yen Crosses Still Bullish and EURAUD Reversal Risk is High

Yen Crosses Still Bullish and EURAUD Reversal Risk is High

2012-09-18 19:30:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Still_Bullish_and_EURAUD_Reversal_Risk_is_High_body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses Still Bullish and EURAUD Reversal Risk is High

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURJPY weakness is viewed as corrective. Former 4th wave support has been reached at 10251 but weakness into the 100% extension of the decline from the top at 10213, intraday pivot from 9/14 at 10197 and the 50% retracement of the 9949-10385 rally at 10167 would present an even better opportunity from a reward/risk standpoint against 10057 (9/14 low). The 4/16 low and 61.8% retracement of the decline from 11143 is an objective at 10461/81 as is the trendline that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 highs. That line is at 10540 this week and 10515 next week.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Still_Bullish_and_EURAUD_Reversal_Risk_is_High_body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses Still Bullish and EURAUD Reversal Risk is High

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY reversed in late August near the 61.8% retracement of the 8862-7445 decline. The decline and rally since may compose waves 1 and 2 or A and B of the next bear wave (the rally from the 9/5 low even channels correctively) but the momentum profile should raise a red flag if you are bearish. That is, 240 minute RSI has continually found support near 50 which is typical action in a bull trend. Price has bounced convincingly from former resistance turned support just below 8200 but additional support is 8150/60 in the event of another dip. The trend is considered bullish above 8067. The March low and series of highs throughout April are of interest at 8480. The level intersects the trendline that extends off of highs in July and August late this month.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Still_Bullish_and_EURAUD_Reversal_Risk_is_High_body_euraud.png, Yen Crosses Still Bullish and EURAUD Reversal Risk is High

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

We’ve been bullish the EURAUD for some time. Although it may be a bit early to turn to bearish, the weight of evidence suggests at least a neutral stance. Most importantly, the EURAUD has run into a well-defined area of resistance from the 6/22 high and 4/16 low (12528 and 12572) and reacted. The rally from the August low takes the form of a completed Elliott wave pattern (5 waves) and wave 5 occurred as a thrust from a triangle, which is often terminal. What’s more, the thrust from the triangle reversed right at the cited objective of 12550 (triangle objective = width of triangle added to top of triangle…12391-12232 + 12391 = 12550). The implications are for a return to 12230. A drop below 12434 would trigger a bearish bias (on pullbacks) against the intervening high.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Still_Bullish_and_EURAUD_Reversal_Risk_is_High_body_audnzd.png, Yen Crosses Still Bullish and EURAUD Reversal Risk is High

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The confluence of the 4/24 low and trendline that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows may trigger a bounce into 12660/90 resistance but the weight of evidence favors a ‘sell the rally’ mentality as long as price is below 12770. The obvious levels of interest are the 2012 and 2011 lows at 12517 and 12317. Look lower.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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