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Euro Crosses Likely to Reverse after One More Low

Euro Crosses Likely to Reverse after One More Low

2012-07-25 20:40:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro / Australian Dollar

240 Minute Bars

Euro_Crosses_Likely_to_Reverse_after_One_More_Low_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses Likely to Reverse after One More Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD reversal story seems fairly popular…probably too popular to work. In fact, the advance from Monday’s low is in 3 waves and probably composes wave iv within the 5 wave decline from 12096. A dip to a new low would complete the pattern and THEN it would be time to play the reversal. Wave v would equal wave i (a common relationship) at 11684. I am not advocating shorts here as upside potential far outweighs downside potential.

Euro / British Pound

60 Minute Bars

Euro_Crosses_Likely_to_Reverse_after_One_More_Low_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses Likely to Reverse after One More Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Like the EURAUD, the EURGBP rally from Monday’s low is in 3 waves and may compose wave iv within a 5 wave decline. If the interpretation is correct, then price would dip to a new low before reversing. Exceeding 7875 (last week’s high) would probably indicate that an important low is already in place.

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Euro_Crosses_Likely_to_Reverse_after_One_More_Low_body_eurjpy.png, Euro Crosses Likely to Reverse after One More Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

5 wave counts from 10162 and 9737 are valid for the EURJPY. In other words, a countertrend move back to at least 9737 (4th wave of one less degree) may be underway. Expect interim resistance at 9617 (former support). The structure of the advance (if it unfolds) should tip us off as to whether or not a larger advance is underway back to 10162.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Likely_to_Reverse_after_One_More_Low_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses Likely to Reverse after One More Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY reversed sharply off of its 60 day average today (as it did on 7/12). There are reasons to believe that the reversal has legs, including the RSI reversal signals of late (lower RSI and higher price) and impulsive structure (5 waves) from 7952. Targets are premature but a move above 8235 probably shifts focus to 8400/80. 8020 is support. A drop below 7950 would negate the bullish bias.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

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