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Australian Dollar Drops Across the Board

Australian Dollar Drops Across the Board

2012-07-12 19:05:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

Australian_Dollar_Drops_Across_the_Board_body_audcad.png, Australian Dollar Drops Across the Board

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“Might the AUDCAD be sending warning signals to AUD (and risk) bulls in general? I think so. The 2nd standard deviation band (60 day) has provoked reactions over the last year, typically within several days of touching the band. The 61.8% retracement of the 10783-9955 decline comes in at 10467 as resistance. Reward/risk favors bears.” A slight new high was registered yesterday before the sharp decline today. A break below 10277 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows but the bearish evidence (61.8%, 2nd standard deviation band, RSI divergence) prevents me from a ‘buy the dip’ mentality. Resistance is 10360 and 10400. Support is 10250/77.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Weekly Bars

Australian_Dollar_Drops_Across_the_Board_body_audnzd.png, Australian Dollar Drops Across the Board

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDNZD has once again tagged the resistance line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 highs. Price is right at its 4 week, 13 week, and 52 week averages. In other words, the AUDNZD is coiled which warns of an eventual break. Look lower as long as price is below the May high of 13048. Ultimately, a test of the 2011 low is expected (12315).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Australian_Dollar_Drops_Across_the_Board_body_audjpy.png, Australian Dollar Drops Across the Board

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The AUDJPY is in ‘melt-up’ mode and approaching resistance from the April low at 8248 and 61.8% retracement of the 8862-7445 decline at 8321. Also on the 2nd standard deviation band (20 day), expect headwinds as price nears the mentioned levels.” The top was at 8235, within pips of the April low. Like other AUD crosses, we don’t know if this is a more important top is in as a drop below the most recent swing low of 7930 is needed to break the series of higher lows but I am in the bearish camp for several reasons; RSI failure near 60 on the daily, near 50 on the weekly, near the 52 week average (now sloping down), the 13 week / 52 week bearish SMA cross, a high being put in place on the 4th day of the month…need I go on? I’m bearish against 8180. Resistance is 8060. Focus is on 7930, 7770, and ultimately 7445.

Euro / Australian Dollar

60 Minute Bars

Australian_Dollar_Drops_Across_the_Board_body_euraud.png, Australian Dollar Drops Across the Board

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD has ticked up from free-floating record lows. Is this a major reversal? Probably not but one can expect another 100-200 pips on the upside given the 5 wave decline from 12527. Brave souls may wish to employ a ‘buy the dip’ strategy below 12000 and look for a move into 12230-12230 (38.2% retracement and former pivot). Above 12363 is needed however in order to signal that a more important low is in place.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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