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AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

2012-05-15 23:23:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Weekly Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Technical_Health_Deteriorates__body_audnzd.png, AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A multi-year topping pattern is evident on weekly charts. This rally from the April low offers an opportunity to align with the larger bear trend against 13061. Resistance is defined by the current level (upward sloping trendline) and 3/15 high at 12934. The trendline that extends off of the March 2011 and December 2011 highs is at about 12990 this week and 12975 next week.

New Zealand Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Technical_Health_Deteriorates__body_nzdcad.png, AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDCAD is just pips away from the November low at 7717. The longer term trendline is of interest below there at 7555 this week (increases about 7 pips per week), which intersects with lows in April 2011. Expect a bounce from these levels if reached. The downside is favored against 7895 and resistance is 7775/95.

Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Technical_Health_Deteriorates__body_audcad.png, AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDCAD has already broken below its long term trendline and immediate focus is on the August 2011 low at 9915 (then the March 2011 low at 9606). Price has stabilized the last 2 days but the shallow bounce is viewed as nothing more than consolidation. 10040/60 is resistance and the downside is favored against 10140 (5/10 high).

Euro / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Technical_Health_Deteriorates__body_eurnzd.png, AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Channel resistance is holding for now but a break exposes the 2012 high (1/2 high) at 16662. A move through would be considered significant not just because of the YTD high but also because of the break through the base channel. As focused on many times in these technical pages, a break of the base channel suggests that an impulse is underway. In that case, focus would shift higher to former support at 17069 and the 161.8% extension at 17121. 16360 is support and the trend is bullish against 16150.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Technical_Health_Deteriorates__body_euraud.png, AUD and NZD Technical Health Deteriorates

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Holding trendline support, the EURAUD is constructive against 12645. Reward/risk is favorable towards a former pivot at 13226. Channel resistance crosses this level next week (on the 15th to be exact). Setbacks (such as today’s drop) are viewed as opportunities to get long for a potential break.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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