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CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

2012-05-01 20:17:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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PRICE TREND / RANGE TABLE

CAD_and_NZD_Bullish_Opportunities_JPY__body_Picture_6.png, CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

-PriceRank is the percentile rank of the last daily close compared most recent 60 and 20 daily closes (100=highest close and 0 = lowest close)

-Range is the difference in pips of highest high – lowest low over X days (60, 20) – for example, a range of 500 under the 20 days column means that the highest 20 day high – the lowest 20 day low = 500 pips

-Rank is the percentile rank of the range over X days (60, 20) – for example, a rank of 100 under the 20 day column means that the range over the last 20 days is the highest it has been in 20 days

-ATR% is the average range over the last 20 days expressed as a %. The rank indicates whether the average range is high or low relative to the last 20 days.

IN GENERAL…

Cable has been strong across the board for the last several months but that cycle may be ending as GBP crosses are pressing against resistance. Of the commodity currencies, the AUD appears vulnerable against the NZD. The NZDCAD is in the middle of its range and could go either way which makes me bullish both NZD and CAD…against Yen. The CADJPY idea is especially intriguing given today’s breakout in crude. I’m limiting risk to TODAY’s LOWS. Rallies in the Yen crosses are contingent on risk sentiment, which seems to change each session these days.

British Pound / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

CAD_and_NZD_Bullish_Opportunities_JPY__body_GBPNZD.png, CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rally from the February low has reached resistance from former support (December 2011 low). Probably more important is that price has returned to its open for 2012. Early year opening ranges often provoke reactions. The proximity of channel resistance reinforces resistance at these levels.

British Pound / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

CAD_and_NZD_Bullish_Opportunities_JPY__body_gbpcad.png, CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A key reversal formed today in the GBPCAD. Interestingly, the last key reversal was on the first trading day of April (4/2). Price declined for several days thereafter before reversing. The combination of today’s key reversal and waning momentum is consistent with a near term top.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

CAD_and_NZD_Bullish_Opportunities_JPY__body_audnzd.png, CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

It’s been our contention in these technical pages that the larger AUDNZD trend is down. In fact, a multiyear topping pattern would be confirmed on a drop below 12317. Near term, the failure at former support and subsequent break of short term trendline support is bearish. RSI is adhering to bearish range rules as well.

New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

CAD_and_NZD_Bullish_Opportunities_JPY__body_nzdjpy.png, CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Today’s low occurred just before the 2/16 pivot low (6466) and October 2011 intervention high. The proximity of these levels and reversal on the first day of the month (the first trading day of the month is the most likely day of the month to produce important pivots) presents a high reward/risk bullish opportunity. 6650 and 6750 are levels to watch for resistance moving forward.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

CAD_and_NZD_Bullish_Opportunities_JPY__body_cadjpy.png, CAD and NZD Bullish Opportunities JPY

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I couldn’t write an article without presenting a wave count. Bottom line here is that I am bullish against 8016. A 3 wave drop ended at that level and the sharp decline into this morning probably completed a flat correction from the 4/19 high. Longer term, the 13 week average continues to hold on closing basis.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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