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Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

2012-04-19 17:43:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_to_Resume_Near_Term_Bear_Trend_body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Tuesday that “the decline from 11142 is probably wave A within a large A-B-C corrective decline. Within wave A, the bounce from 10461 composes wave 4 and resistance is expected in the 10710/80 zone. I favor shorts into there with a stop above 10850. 10425 and 10350 are bearish objectives.” Wave 4 of A may be complete at today’s high (10734). Look lower towards the mentioned objectives. 10575/10615 is interim support.

Bottom line (next 5 days): down

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_to_Resume_Near_Term_Bear_Trend_body_gbpjpy.png, Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBP is strong relative to other currencies and therefore playing it from the short side isn’t wise. Price is currently testing resistance from the 4/5 high. Given the macro environment and EURJPY pattern, favor weakness but probably in a correction towards 12890-12955. Structurally, the GBPJPY is entering a b of B wave correction. This part of the wave pattern is the most complex, unpredictable and therefore difficult to trade.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_to_Resume_Near_Term_Bear_Trend_body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Tuesday’s commentary was that “the sideways range probably serves to correct early April weakness. In other words, a bearish resolution is expected. That’s not to say that a test of 8480 is out of the question. In fact, such a test would present a bearish opportunity near the 20 day average (currently just above 8500). Remember, a drop below 8248 would also signal a break of the trendline that extends off of the October and November trendlines and shift focus to 8050.” Price has failed just shy of the 20 day average and 8480 the last 2 days. Look lower. A break below 8248 exposes the December high / January 30th low at 8050. Note: NZDJPY may be an even better bet.

Bottom line (next 5 days): down

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_to_Resume_Near_Term_Bear_Trend_body_euraud.png, Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD held channel and trendline support this week. The 2/27 high and 3/26 low are pivots that reinforce the floor. The 20 day average at the current level and 4/11 high at 12783 define resistance. Near term support is 12690. A push above the March high of 12891 may complete 5 waves up from 12133. Expect resistance near 13000.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_to_Resume_Near_Term_Bear_Trend_body_eurcad.png, Yen Crosses to Resume Near Term Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The January low (12874) is in sight and a break would target the January 2011 (and all of 2011) low at 12776 and then the 2010 (from June) low at 12449…A stop on any shorts should be kept to 13333.” Action for all of 2012 may compose a triangle. If so, then an objective is 12566 (13176 – triangle width (13479-12869)). Near term, the turn higher negates the immediate bearish breakdown. Exceeding 13176 may complete a small flat correction from the 4/5 low and offer a shorting opportunity. A new high in the EURAUD would probably correlate with the end of the EURCAD correction.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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