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Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

2012-04-17 18:50:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Bounce_in_Yen_Crosses_to_Present_Next_Bear_Opportunity_body_eurjpy.png, Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY has bounced following a nearly 700 pip decline from the March (and April) high. Structurally, the decline from 11142 is probably wave A within a large A-B-C corrective decline. Within wave A, the bounce from 10461 composes wave 4 and resistance is expected in the 10710/80 zone. I favor shorts into there with a stop above 10850. 10425 and 10350 are bearish objectives.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/down

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Bounce_in_Yen_Crosses_to_Present_Next_Bear_Opportunity_body_gbpjpy.png, Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Additional short term GBPJPY strength would present a bearish opportunity (structure is similar to that of the EURJPY). Expect resistance from recent pivots at 12957-13022 (the 20 day average reinforces). The March low at 12654 and 2/23 low at 12545 remain of interest on the downside.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/down

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Bounce_in_Yen_Crosses_to_Present_Next_Bear_Opportunity_body_audjpy.png, Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has traded in a volatile range for the last 6 days. Quite simply, the sideways range probably serves to correct early April weakness. In other words, a bearish resolution is expected. That’s not to say that a test of 8480is out of the question. In fact, such a test would present a bearish opportunity near the 20 day average (currently just above 8500). Remember, a drop below 8248 would also signal a break of the trendline that extends off of the October and November trendlines and shift focus to 8050.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/down

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Bounce_in_Yen_Crosses_to_Present_Next_Bear_Opportunity_body_euraud.png, Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD is trying to hold on to channel support. I wrote last week that “this level is defended by trendline support and former pivots (2/27 high and 3/26 low) and may prove tougher to crack than most think. Resistance is 12672-12700. Shorts into there with a stop above 12785 is warranted.” Price reversed at 12718 last night and bears should move to breakeven if taking part in that trade. Given the sideways nature of markets in general at the current juncture, a clean break lower isn’t a given.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/lower

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

Bounce_in_Yen_Crosses_to_Present_Next_Bear_Opportunity_body_eurcad.png, Bounce in Yen Crosses to Present Next Bear Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The January low (12874) is in sight and a break would target the January 2011 (and all of 2011) low at 12776 and then the 2010 (from June) low at 12449…A stop on any shorts should be kept to 13333.” Action for all of 2012 may compose a triangle. If so, then an objective is 12566 (13176 – triangle width (13479-12869)). Resistance is now 13005/60.

Bottom line (next 5 days): down

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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