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EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

2012-04-03 20:48:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / Canadian Dollar

240 Minutes Bars

EURAUD_Bullish_Opportunity_on_a_Dip_body_eurcad.png, EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The sideways pattern that has unfolded since the January low may be complete. The rally into the January high failed at a level that was support throughout 2011 and the weak beginning to April provides a clear pivot (13333). Don’t be surprised to see some corrective action (strength) following a 200 + pip decline the last 2 days. Short term resistance is 13160. 13000 is near term support.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/lower

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Bullish_Opportunity_on_a_Dip_body_euraud.png, EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD rally has paused in recent days and the break of today’s outside day should trigger the next short term move. Exceeding 12880 would shift focus towards former support at 12960 and the 200 day average (currently at 13065). A drop below 12740 would present an opportunity to align with the larger bull trend. Supports are 12710 and 12625.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/higher

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

EURAUD_Bullish_Opportunity_on_a_Dip_body_eurjpy.png, EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY remains supported ahead of its 3/22 low. The rally has failed at the 10/31/11 intervention high for 3 successive weeks. As such, reward/risk warrants a bearish stance in anticipation of a break under 10848 and continuation towards 10740 and the March low at 10564. 10990 and 11050 are resistance and price must remain below 11143 in order for bears to remain favored. Note that trading reversals is extremely difficult and often requires several attempts.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/lower

British Pound / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

EURAUD_Bullish_Opportunity_on_a_Dip_body_gbpjpy.png, EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY remains supported ahead of its 3/23 low. Bigger picture however, a key reversal formed 2 weeks ago and last week’s failed test of the prior week’s high is suggestive of distribution. The well-defined Elliott channel has also been broken. Reward/risk at this point warrants a bearish stance in anticipation of a break under 13000 and continuation towards 12815 and the March low at 12654. 13210/50 is resistance and price needs to stay below 13350 in order bears to remain favored. Note that trading reversals is extremely difficult and often requires several attempts.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/lower

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minutes Bars

EURAUD_Bullish_Opportunity_on_a_Dip_body_audjpy.png, EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY continues to probe (potential) Elliott channel support but price is vulnerable below the Sunday night gap open high of 8680. A break is expected and 8385 and 8285 serve as near term bearish objectives. Keep the bigger picture in view. The last 5 weeks have spent time at the resistance line that extends off of the November 2007 and July 2008 highs and a bearish key reversal formed 2 weeks ago (price has remained below that high). Near term resistance extends to 8580. Note that trading reversals is extremely difficult and often requires several attempts.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/lower

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Bullish_Opportunity_on_a_Dip_body_cadjpy.png, EURAUD Bullish Opportunity on a Dip

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The key reversal from 2 weeks ago occurred at the trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 highs. The CADJPY is the strongest of the Yen crosses. From a trading standpoint, it is best to sell relative weakness and buy relative strength. In other words, if you are looking to play weakness across the Yen crosses, then look elsewhere. 8410 is resistance and a break under 8180 would shift focus to 8040.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways/lower

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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