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Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

2012-03-23 19:43:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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10 Year US Treasury Note (Black)-Yen Futures (Red)

60 Minute Bars

Trading_the_Yen_Crosses_Next_Week_body_tenyear.png, Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

It’s no secret that the US treasury complex and Yen have historically exhibited a tight correlation (lower bonds / higher yields and Yen as a funding currency for carry are one and the same). Both markets were dormant for months but volatility has returned. Volatility and the ease with which one can ‘see’ the oscillations between optimism and pessimism are correlated. ‘Volatility clarifies’ is a market truism. The current rally in the 10 year is viewed as the initial leg of a 3 wave advance. Expectations are for a partial retracement of the rally from the 3/20 low. Watch 128-18 and 128’13 for support. This translates into partial retracements of the recent declines in the Yen crosses before another leg lower.

Bottom line (next 5 days): down

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Trading_the_Yen_Crosses_Next_Week_body_eurjpy.png, Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The decline from 11142 is probably the beginning of a 4th wave correction in the EURJPY. Corrective moves unfold in 3 waves (A-B-C) thus the 11142-10847 decline composes wave A. Wave B is unfolding now and resistance is 10990-11025. I favor shorts into that zone towards the range low 10847. 10750 is an objective.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways

British Pound / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Trading_the_Yen_Crosses_Next_Week_body_gbpjpy.png, Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

For now, I’ll treat the decline in the GBPUSD as corrective but the near term implications are the same whether or not the decline from the top is impulsive or corrective. Resistance next week comes in at 13155/90 and I favor shorting in that zone and targeting the range low near 13000. This level is reinforced by the 3/9 high and 20 day average and may be stronger than most think but a break would expose 12820.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Trading_the_Yen_Crosses_Next_Week_body_audjpy.png, Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY decline from 8862 is in a perfect 5 waves (channels perfectly). The sharp reversal this morning gives scope to additional strength into 8690-8730 resistance. I favor shorts into that level for a return to the range low at 8516, which may complete the decline from 8862. Supports would be 8471 and 8385.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Trading_the_Yen_Crosses_Next_Week_body_cadjpy.png, Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The decline from 8496 is probably the beginning of a 4th wave correction in the CADJPY. Corrective moves unfold in 3 waves (A-B-C) thus the 8496-8185 decline composes wave A. Wave B is unfolding now and resistance is 8337-8365. I favor shorts into that zone towards the range low 8183. The March low at 8040 is an objective.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways

New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Trading_the_Yen_Crosses_Next_Week_body_nzdjpy.png, Trading the Yen Crosses Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDJPY decline from 6911 isn’t as clear structurally (wave 5 ended a bit above the low this morning) as the AUDJPY but the implications are the same. The sharp reversal this morning gives scope to additional strength into 6800. I favor shorts into that level for a return to the range low at 6653, which may complete the decline from 6911.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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