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Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

2012-03-20 18:59:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A 5 wave rally from 9924 is nearing completion (probably composing wave 3 within the 5 wave rally from the January low). Levels to expect resistance are the May 2011 high at 11157 and the 61.8% extension of 9924-10992 at 11224. A drop below Monday’s low (10917) would be an early indication that a larger 4th wave decline / correction is underway.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_gbpjpy.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A 5 wave rally from 11728 is nearing completion. Watch the Elliott channel for resistance, which is at 13386 tomorrow and 13413 on Thursday. Over the next few days, channel resistance is reinforced by the 61.8% extension of waves 1 through 3 at 13446 and the 5/31/11 high at 13512. A drop below Monday’s low (10917) would be an early indication that a larger 4th wave decline / correction is underway.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A 5 wave rally from the December low is nearing completion. Watch the Elliott channel for resistance, which is intersects with the 2011 high at 90 over the next few days. Near term, a new high seems likely in order to complete an ending diagonal from 8480 (3/7 low).

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_cadjpy.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY has reached the trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 highs. Additional strength targets the July 2011 high at 8505. Pattern since 3/14 probably composes a triangle. The implications are for a bullish thrust out of the triangle before a reversal.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_euraud.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A multi month EURAUD 4th wave correction may be nearing completion. Price is testing channel resistance now and the rally from the February low would consist of 2 equal legs at 12746. The Fibonacci objective intersects channel resistance on Thursday.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping?

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_eurgbp.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Price pattern since the beginning of the year has been extremely choppy. “The EURGBP rally from the January low failed at former support (November) just above 8500 which keeps long term focus lower towards the 2010 low at 8066.” The downside is favored against 8425. Resistance is 8350/80 (today’s rally has already failed at the lower end of that range).

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways / lower

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Yen_Crosses_Approaching_Intermediate_Term_Peaks__body_eurcad.png, Yen Crosses Approaching Intermediate Term Peaks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD late February top is defined by “channel resistance, the 50% retracement of the decline from 14075, congestion from December and the 2011 double bottom.” That level is expected hold. Bears can use the current rally to initiate shorts in the 13210/60 range (defined by 3/8 high and 61.8% retracement of decline from 13479).

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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