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Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

2012-03-15 19:39:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

My latest comments were that “a multi month EURAUD 4th wave correction is still unfolding. Continue to look higher towards channel resistance (the 4th wave corrective channel resistance and the larger degree impulsive channel resistance).” Tuesday’s reversal leaves the advance from the 3/2 low in 3 waves (corrective). A cautious bearish bias is warranted against the 3/12 high. Near term resistance is 12435/60.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways / lower

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The EURGBP rally from the January low failed at former support (November) just above 8500 which keeps long term focus lower towards the 2010 low at 8066.” Action since the 2/24 high probably consists of waves 1 and 2 of the next larger bear leg. The downside is favored against 8425 (previously 8505). Resistance is 8350/80 (today’s rally has already failed at the lower end of that range).

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways / lower

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_eurcad.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD late February top is defined by “channel resistance, the 50% retracement of the decline from 14075, congestion from December and the 2011 double bottom. Action since the 2/27 high probably consists of waves 1 and 2 of the next larger bear leg. The downside is favored against 13480.” Risk on shorts can be moved down to 13080. 13000/30 is resistance (trendline and former pivot). Fibonacci objectives are at 12755 and 12475.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways / lower

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_eurjpy.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Continue to look higher in the EURJPY as long as price is above the Monday low of 10750. A drop under 10750 exposes 10680 (former resistance) and then the 3/6 low at 10564. A break above 10994 exposes the October high at 11157 and May 2011 low at 11327 (reinforced by the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 12331-9702).

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Continue to look higher in the GBPJPY as long as price is above the Monday low of 12815. A drop under 12815 exposes 12780 (former resistance) and 12653 (March low). The next level of interest on the upside is the 6/14/11 high at 13230. Keep an eye on the short term channel as well, which is at 13300 on Friday. Watch the Elliott channel for resistance.

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Continue to look higher in the AUDJPY as long as price is above the Monday low of 8605. A drop under 8605 exposes 8550 and 8480. Bullish objectives are the 2011 high at 90 and channel resistance (8960 on Friday). Keep in mind that a new high (above 8800) would satisfy minimum expectations for wave v (and 3 from the December low). Watch the Elliott channel for resistance.

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_-_Short_on_Rallies_Remains_Favored_Strategy_body_cadjpy.png, Euro Crosses - Short on Rallies Remains Favored Strategy

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY has reached the trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 highs. Additional strength targets the July 2011 high at 8505. It’s worth noting that the CADJPY has advanced for 9 consecutive weeks (not including this week). Streaks such as this are unsustainable and the specter of 5 waves in the CADJPY from 7452 warn of at least a corrective downturn. Support is 8280.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping?

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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