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Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

My latest comments were that “a multi month EURAUD 4th wave correction is still unfolding. Continue to look higher towards channel resistance (the 4th wave corrective channel resistance and the larger degree impulsive channel resistance).” Today’s reversal leaves the advance from the 3/2 low in 3 waves (corrective). A cautious bearish bias is warranted against the 3/12 high. Near term resistance is 12435/60.

Bottom line (next 5 days): sideways / lower?

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The EURGBP rally from the January low failed at former support (November) just above 8500 which keeps long term focus lower towards the 2010 low at 8066.” Action since the 2/24 high probably consists of waves 1 and 2 of the next larger bear leg. The downside is favored against 8425 (previously 8505). Resistance is now 8350/80.

Bottom line (next 5 days): lower

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_eurcad.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD late February top is defined by “channel resistance, the 50% retracement of the decline from 14075, congestion from December and the 2011 double bottom. Action since the 2/27 high probably consists of waves 1 and 2 of the next larger bear leg. The downside is favored against 13480.” Risk on shorts can be moved down to 13080. 12990 is resistance. Fibonacci objectives are at 12755 and 12475.

Bottom line (next 5 days): lower

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_eurjpy.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Continue to look higher in the EURJPY as long as price is above the Monday low of 10750. A drop under 10750 exposes support at 10680 (former resistance). A break above 10994 exposes the October high at 11157. Near term support is 10825 and 10780.

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Continue to look higher in the GBPJPY as long as price is above the Monday low of 12815. A drop under 12815 exposes support at 12780 (former resistance). Having already traded to a new high for the month, the next levels of interest are the 8/4/11 and 6/14/11 highs at 13083 and 13232. The 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high is at 13115. Near term support is 12960/90 and 12910.

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Continue to look higher in the AUDJPY as long as price is above the Monday low of 8605. A drop under 8605 exposes the 3/8 low at 8550. A break above 8800 exposes the 2011 high at 90. Near term support is 8715 and 8675. Keep in mind that a new high (above 8800) would satisfy minimum expectations for wave v (and 3 from the December low). Watch the Elliott channel for resistance.

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Euro_Crosses_Reverse_Sharply-Breakdown_on_Horizon_body_cadjpy.png, Euro Crosses Reverse Sharply-Breakdown on Horizon?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is closing in on the trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 highs. The line is at about 8455 this week. Trading through the line would face the July 2011 high at8505. The CADJPY has advanced for 9 consecutive weeks (not including this week) and is probably due for at least a pause. Watch the mentioned levels for resistance.

Bottom line (next 5 days): higher / topping?

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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