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Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

2012-03-06 22:00:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY has plunged into February congestion (and the 12/2 high) at 10568. Support is stacked below the current market from the 20 day average and trendlines. I’m on the lookout for a low between 10466 and 10525. 10620/70 is near term resistance.

Bottom line: lower but bottoming

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_gbpjpy.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Like the EURJPY, the GBPJPY will probably slide a bit lower before finding some sort of low. Levels to keep an eye on are the 38.2% retracement of the 11958-13009 rally, at 12608, the 2/23 low at 12546, and confluence of the 50% retracement and 2/16 high at 12480. I’m looking for a low between 12480 and 12545. Near term resistance is up to 12815.

Bottom line: lower but bottoming

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has plunged to its 20 day average and may slide a bit more to reach channel and/or trendline support closer to 8400 (the important intervention October 2011 high is 8395). I’ll expect bulls to regain control near 8400. 8550-8600 is near term resistance.

Bottom line: lower but bottoming

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_cadjpy.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY decline is also viewed as a correction (albeit as a sharp one). Expect support at the 2/27 low of 7987, which is reinforced by the 20 day average and trendline support that extends off of February lows. Near term resistance extends to 8125.

Bottom line: lower but bottoming

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_euraud.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “there is plenty of room for upside continuation towards the mid-upper 12700s (channel resistance and 38.2% retracement of the decline from 13808).” Patterns in other markets (Yen, USD, and stocks) suggest additional risk aversion before a turn. A EURAUD rally towards the mentioned mid-upper 12700s would fit this general theme.

Bottom line: higher

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_eurgbp.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP rally from the January low failed at former support (November) just above 8500 which keeps long term focus lower towards the 2010 low at 8066. A drop under 8310 would probably complete 5 waves down from 8505 and give way to a corrective advance (and opportunity to get short). Resistance is 8385-8405.

Bottom line: sideways

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Yen_Crosses_off_Sharply_-_Support_Just_Under_Current_Market_body_eurcad.png, Yen Crosses off Sharply - Support Just Under Current Market

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “a strong technical case can be made for the EURCAD to roll over from current levels. Resistance at Monday’s high is defined by channel resistance, the 50% retracement of the decline from 14075, congestion from December and the 2011 double bottom.” Price has plummeted from the 2/27 high and bears are favored against that level. 13200 and 13260 is now resistance.

Bottom line: sideways

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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