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Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_eurjpy.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Bulls didn’t have any problem with the 200 day average on Friday. Despite yesterday’s reversal, EURJPY pattern remains constructive towards the 10/31/11 high at 11159 and maybe the 261.8% extension of the 9702-10220 rally at 11279 over the next few weeks. Near term, additional downside can’t be ruled out but support would be expected at 10605/85.

Bottom line: sideways/down but in a correction

British Pound / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_gbpjpy.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Like the EURJPY, additional upside is favored in the GBPJPY towards 13000 (May 2011 low is at 10327, August 2011 high is at 13083) and perhaps the 261.8% extension of the 11728-12204 rally at 13205. The decline from Sunday’s high found support from the 2/20 high and another leg down would probably find support at 12550.

Bottom line: sideways/down but in a correction

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_audjpy.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY may be approaching at least a short term turning point. Specific levels to keep in mind are the July 2011 high at 8772 and April 2010 high at 8804. A drop below 8561 could complete a correction from 8747 – support would extend to 8470.

Bottom line: sideways/lower but in a correction

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_cadjpy.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY has consolidated around the 100% extension of the 7215-7964 rally at 8097. Weakness from yesterday’s high is viewed as a correction that gives way to another thrust towards the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high at 8288. This level intersects several channels early next week.

Bottom line: sideways/lower but in a correction

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_euraud.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “the 5 wave rally from the 2/16 low leaves the EURAUD vulnerable to at least a short term pullback.” We got the pullback and perhaps a reversal on Friday. I say perhaps because there is plenty of room for upside continuation towards the mid-upper 12700s (channel resistance and 38.2% retracement of the decline from 13808). Strategically, the break of Friday’s high and low serve as pivots. In other words, exceeding 12618 suggests upside continuation towards the mentioned levels while a drop below 12427 would suggest that an important top is in place.

Bottom line: ?

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_eurgbp.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The break above 8410 opens the door for additional strength towards the 161.8% extension of the 8221-8409 rally at 8569. This level intersects trendline resistance (July 2011 and October 2011) highs tomorrow (Wednesday). The 8410 breakout level is now support.

Bottom line: sideways/lower but in a correction

Euro / Canadian Dollar

WeeklyBars

Australian_Dollar_Yen_Nears_Top_of_Multiyear_Range_body_eurcad.png, Australian Dollar / Yen Nears Top of Multiyear Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A strong technical case can be made for the EURCAD to roll over from current levels (which would support the EURAUD rolling over as well). Resistance at Monday’s high is defined by channel resistance, the 50% retracement of the decline from 14075, congestion from December and the 2011 double bottom. Favor the downside against 13480. 13260 is support.

Bottom line: lower

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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