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Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

2012-02-23 23:44:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_eurjpy.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “10700 comes into play in the event of a parabolic move.” The 200 day average is at 10715 Friday and Fibonacci objectives are at 10762 (161.8% of 9740-10220/9924) and 10836 (161.8% of 9924-10328/10181). The August 2011 is at 10802. The point here is that resistance levels are clustered from 10715 to mid 10800 and a new month, which is often coincident with market turns, begins next week. I’m expecting a move into the top of the mentioned resistance range before a top and drop into support from 10470-10570 (former resistance…now probable support).

Bottom line: into a top near 10800/50

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_gbpjpy.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The bulk of the near term bull move is complete but expect the GBPJPY to subdivide higher to test the 100% extension of the 11683-12732 at 12776. This level intersects with the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs and channel that characterizes structure since the 2011 low early next week (red channel is drawn off of the closes).

Bottom line: into a top near 12775

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_audjpy.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Barring a drop below 8470, upside potential remains for a test of the 100% extension of the 7204-8395 rally at 8668. The April 2010 high is also in play at 8804. Mature structure and waning momentum suggest a sharp reaction is likely (lower) in the event of a test of the mentioned levels (red channel is drawn off of the closes).

Bottom line: into a top near 8700/8800

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_cadjpy.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

CADJPY resistance is clustered around 8100. The 100% extension of the 7215-7964 rally is at 8097 and joined by lows from June and July 2011. The 50% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high comes in at 8083. In summary, look higher but into a top near 8100 (perhaps slightly above 8100).

Bottom line: into a top near 8100

Euro / Australian Dollar

240 Minute Bars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_euraud.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Currently testing resistance from the 1/30 high and 50 day average, the 5 wave rally from the 2/16 low leaves the EURAUD vulnerable to at least a short term pullback below at least 12400. This fits with risk trends in general, which suggest a strong thrust before a top and reversal (think Yen crosses, USD pairs, stocks). 12380 and 12305 are supports.

Bottom line: lower but in a correction then higher

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_EURGBP.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The break above 8410 and corrective channel resistance gives scope to an extension towards the 161.8% extension of the 8221-8409 rally, at 8569…but probably not until a dip into 8400/50. The mentioned Fibonacci extension intersects with the July-October trendline early next week.

Bottom line: a dip then higher

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Resistance_in_Play_for_Yen_Crosses_Early_Next_Week_body_EURCAD.png, Resistance in Play for Yen Crosses Early Next Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD break above 13251 shifts focus to the 100% extension of the 12873-13251 rally, at 13401. The measured level is reinforced by the September 2011 low. Channel resistance is a bit higher at 13425 Friday. Near term support (in the event of a dip-there is no evidence of a top here yet however) is 13220/95.

Bottom line: higher

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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