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EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

2012-02-14 22:19:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_eurcad.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD rally from the 1/17 low is left as a 3 wave structure, which leaves the EURCAD vulnerable to a drop below the January low at 12873. Doing so would expose the January 2011 low at 12778. Price has reached short term support at 13100 and a bounce into 13150-13200 would offer an opportunity to get short.

Bottom line: short on strength into 13150-13200, stop 13260, target below 12870

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_eurjpy.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The upside remains favored in the EURJPY towards 10440 (100% extension) and channel resistance, which is at about 10480 on Wednesday (increases about 20 pips per day). The decline from 10328 to 10181 is in 3 waves, which reinforces the bullish bias. Near term support extends to 10235.

Bottom line: long, stop 10180, targets 10440, 10570

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_gbpjpy.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Longs remain favored towards the confluence of the 100% extension of the 1/13-1/25 rally and 200 day average at 12435/55. The channel is at 12475 on Wednesday and increases about 20 pips per day. The decline from 12316 to 12167 is in 3 waves and therefore corrective. The upside is favored against 12167 and 12225/50 is near term support.

Bottom line: long, stop 12165, target 12400-12500

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_audjpy.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has taken out its January high and 9 month trendline, which exposes the October high (and intervention high) at 8395. The specter of 5 wave advances from the 12/15 and 1/30 lows indicates reversal potential so keep risk to 8265. A drop below would shift focus to 8190. An extended objective remains the 100% extension of the rally from the October low, at 8668.

Bottom line: long, stop 8265, target 8600

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_cadjpy.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY traded to its 200 day average today for the first time since July. Focus does remain on the October high at 7964 and a Fibonacci confluence at 8080/8100 (100% extension of rally from October low and 161.8% extension of rally from November low) but respect potential for some consolidation after today’s impressive advance. 7825 and 7790 are supports.

Bottom line: long, stop 7730, target 8080

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_euraud.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Last Tuesday’s outside day reversal did give way to 3 days of strength but price failed ahead of the late January highs and has now retraced half of the rally from 12133. As long as the EURAUD is below 12477, trend should be considered sideways / down. Interim support is 12230.

Bottom line: long, stop 12130, target open

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

EURCAD_Pattern_Suggests_Test_of_2011_Low_Soon_body_eurgbp.png, EURCAD Pattern Suggests Test of 2011 Low Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

It’s difficult to see the EURGBP rally from 8221 as anything more than a 4th wave correction. As such, price is vulnerable below 8410. Still, exceeding 8410 would shift focus to the November low at 8485. Also don’t dismiss potential for continued sideways action between 8250 and 8410. I don’t see a trade here.

Bottom line: flat

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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