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Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

2012-01-31 22:02:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

After piercing channel resistance yesterday, the EURAUD has rolled over and focus is on the low at 12227. An objective moving forward is 12000, which is psychologically significant as well as a measured level (breakout level - width of consolidation = 12227 – (12477-12227) = 11977).

Bottom line: short, stop 12480, target 12000

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Today’s decline confirms my bias that “the EURGBP rally is a corrective 4th wave advance and a new low will be registered (under 8221).” Risk on shorts can be moved down from 8500 to last week’s high (8409). Levels of interest on the downside are the August and July 2010 lows at 8141 and 8066. 8320/35 is near term resistance (if reached).

Bottom line: short, stop 8415, target under 8220

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_eurcad.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Friday’s EURCAD surge has been completely retraced and near term focus is on the 1/23 low at 13050. A drop below the January low would expose the January 2011 low at 12776. Risk on shorts should be kept to last week’s high (13251) as a move through there would shift focus to 13360 and 13426.

Bottom line: short, stop 13260, target below 12870

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_EURJPY.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “the rally from the low is in 3 waves which leaves price vulnerable against 10220.” The EURJPY is again under pressure and near term focus is on the 1/13 high at 9880. The 20 day average is also of interest just below the current level at 9927. Near term resistance is 10000/40 and risk on shorts should be kept to Monday’s high of 10145.

Bottom line: short, stop 10150, targets 9880 and under 9700

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY has retraced half of its advance from the January low. Additional support comes in at the 20 day average (11937) and 1/11 high (11911). Resistance is 12060 and 12120. I’m on the lookout for formation of an important low (constructive pattern since the September low) in early February.

Bottom line: flat

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Last week’s comments regarding daily RSI remains valid; “Daily RSI reached 75. Since the carry trade top in July 2007, RSI readings of 75 or more have occurred in June 2007 (end of June), October 2009, April 2009, and April 2011. All were significant tops. A run at the October high cannot be dismissed but the evidence favors selling these levels. The next supports are 8050 and 7975.” 8050 was reached yesterday and price has consolidated between 8050 and 8150 since. Additional resistance is 8165/95 and support comes in from the 20 day average at 8020.

Bottom line: flat

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Vulnerable_to_Fresh_Lows_body_cadjpy.png, Euro Crosses Vulnerable to Fresh Lows

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY decline has met support from the 20 day average and early January highs at 7587. Continued weakness would target trendline support, which is at 7510 on Wednesday and increases about 3 pips per day. Resistance above today’s high is 7700.

Bottom line: flat

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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