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Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

2012-01-19 20:49:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I maintain that the EURGBP rally is a corrective 4th wave advance and that a new low will be registered (under 8221). Price is at resistance from last week’s high but a break would target 8407/20 (100% extension of move from the low and 12/29 high). Strength into this area is still within the confines of a bear move. Favor the downside against 8500 (a rally to that level would not fit within the confines of a bear).

Bottom line: short on strength above 8400, stop 8500, target under 8220

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Tuesday that “the EURAUD has reached the 161.8% extension of the 10/4/11-11/1/11 decline at 12229. Additional downside is favored in the weeks ahead but the next week is likely to produce a corrective rally in order to relieve the extreme daily momentum readings. At this point, all we can do is estimate that resistance is between 12447 and 12545.” Price has reached 12445 but near term focus remains higher towards 12510/70 (former pivots). A pop into there would produce an opportunity to short against the first day of the month high of 12695.

Bottom line: short on strength above 12500, stop 12700, target under 12227

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_eurcad.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

From Tuesday - “The deeply oversold level (daily RSI) on the EURCAD suggests lower prices in the weeks and months ahead but strength in the days ahead. Resistance is 13095-13140 and the downside is favored against the January high (13232).” Price is nearing 13140 and a test would present an opportunity to align with the downtrend. Stops should be above 13232.

Bottom line: short on strength into 13140, stop 13240, target under 12870

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_eurjpy.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY is nearing resistance from the early month high of 10030 (this is also the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 10569). Elliott channel resistance comes in just above 10030 tomorrow as well. The caveat of course is the potential for intervention and/or Euro short covering (COT warns of both). If price exceeds 10030, then I would not be short as the next objective level for a stop wouldn’t be until 10250 (too much risk).

Bottom line: flat

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

From Tuesday - “The GBPJPY carved out a daily key reversal on Friday. Those looking to align with the short side may do so at higher levels, notably above 11900. Stops should be kept to the high for January at 12020.” Having already reached 11970 today, reward/risk has shifted to the downside. The EURJPY comments regarding intervention apply here of course.

Bottom line: flat

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDJPY focus remains higher towards the December high at 8053, the 11/7 high at 8146 and 100% extension of the rally from the November low at 8269.” 8053 was reached today and the next level of interest is the short term channel (at about 8080 Friday). Short term support is 8000/20 and only a drop under 7960 would merit bearish consideration.

Bottom line: flat

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Euro_Crosses_Near_Resistance_after_Impressive_Rallies_body_cadjpy.png, Euro Crosses Near Resistance after Impressive Rallies

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The trendline that extends off of the April, July, October, and December highs has been broken thus focus is on the the 7672 (12/23 high), 7737 (December high) and 7840 (100% extension of 7348-7737 rally). Only a drop below 7540 would warrant bearish consideration.

Bottom line: short on strength above 8400, stop 8500, target under 8220

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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