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Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

2011-12-30 23:44:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY has dropped below the June 2001 low of 9988 and the next major horizontal level is not until the 2000 low at 8894. The combination of the lowest daily RSI reading since September and the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2010 lows is likely to give way to a bounce from the current level. A move into 10070-10150 would offer an opportunity to short against the mid December high (10253) for an extended decline.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_gbpjpy.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A head and shoulders pattern (continuation…bearish) is now confirmed with the break below neckline support. The downside is favored against 12276 towards the September low (and all time low) of 11680. There are no points of reference below 11680 so concentrate on round figures such as 11500 and 11000. Resistance is 12025, 12075, and 12160.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The longer that the AUDJPY range contracts, the more I think that a bearish triangle is unfolding from the October low. It’s unclear if the triangle is complete but we should have a good idea early in the new year. The implications going into 2012 are for a decline (albeit in a terminal thrust) below 7202.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_cadjpy.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is in the exact same position as the AUDJPY but the triangle pattern is clearer and trendline resistance has thwarted bulls for several weeks now. The implications going into 2012 are for a decline (albeit in a terminal thrust) below 7212. Favor the downside against 7740. 7580-7615 is resistance.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Weekly Bars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_euraud.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The drop under 12925 strongly suggests that a 12 month triangle is complete. One would expect an extended decline from a consolidation pattern that consumed so much time. Near term, the downside break is valid against 13150. Downside levels of interest are 12770 and 12565 (weekly and monthly pivots).” The EURAUD fell as low as 12631 today. 12710 and 12770 are resistance levels. I’m on the lookout for another pivot high to sell against next week.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_eurgbp.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP is hugging channel support but looks ripe for a drop into the January low at 8284 in order to complete 5 waves down from 8664. Given the 5th wave interpretation, refrain from getting bearish on a new low. Rather, expect a countertrend rally to develop – resistance would be 8420.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Yen_Crosses_Extend_body_eurcad.png, Yen Crosses - Bear Legs to Extend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD break below 13400 and trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 lows gives scope to an extended decline towards the 2011 and 2010 lows at 12777 and 12447. Rallies should be sold and resistance is now 13275, 13360, and 13425. The 20 day average reinforces resistance at the latter level. Look for a rally to sell next week.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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