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Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

2011-12-21 21:05:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_eurjpy.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY has rebounded from the 12/15 low near 10100 but has thus far been thwarted by the steep trendline from the 10/31 and 12/2 highs (red line). I don’t assign much value to that line however since the 10/31 high is the product of intervention (artificial – very little trading took place at that high). Instead, focus on the line that extends off of the 11/1 high. This line is at about 10350 on Thursday (20 day average is at 10300). My view is constructive towards the mentioned levels as long as price is above Monday’s low of 10125. A drop below there would expose the October low at 10073 and the June 2001 low at 9988.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_gbpjpy.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Friday that “it’s worth noting that the last 3 days are dojis. The 3 day range is 12028 to 12114. These levels can serve as breakout points (stop on the other side).” The GBPJPY broke through the topside yesterday and the December high is on the verge of giving way at 12266. Trading through 12266 would shift focus to channel resistance and the 100% extension at 12360 (reinforced by former support at 12390). 12170 and 12115 are supports.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_audjpy.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has broken through its 20 day average and is putting trendline resistance to the test. Pattern is constructive as long as price is above 7709 (Monday low). Focus is on the December high at 8052 with a push through targeting former resistance at 8148 and the 100% extension at 8271 (also watch the channel and 200 day average). Support is 7800.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_cadjpy.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY has also pushed through its 20 day average but faces resistance from former support at 7612 and a multi month trendline (November-December). A more significant trendline (off of the April, July, October, and December highs) is at 7693 Thursday and decreases about 7 pips per day. A push through there would clear the way for a test of the December high at 7734. I maintain a constructive bias as long as price is above 7478. 7535/50 is support.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Weekly Bars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_euraud.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The drop under 12925 strongly suggests that a 12 month triangle is complete. One would expect an extended decline from a consolidation pattern that consumed so much time. Near term, the downside break is valid against 13150. A pop above that level would suggest that the break is false and shift focus to resistance at 13280. Downside levels of interest are 12770 and 12565 (weekly and monthly pivots).

Euro / British Pound

300 Minute Bars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_eurgbp.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Friday that “EURGBP focus remains lower into the January low at 8284. Near term, a triangle may be unfolding from 8372 as a small 4th wave (resistance above 8424 is 8440). A drop into a new low would likely be followed by additional consolidation and yet another leg lower.” The EURGBP has broken down and price is nearing the mentioned 8284. Any strength should prove corrective (probably as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from 8664) – resistance is 8370-8425. After 8284, there is no obvious support until 8140 and 8065.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

WeeklyBars

Yen_Trendlines_in_Play_body_eurcad.png, Japanese Yen Trendlines in Play

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD is testing the 13400 figure for the 3rd time since July. A break gives scope to a test of the 2010-2011 trendline at about 13280 this week. Other levels of interest are the February low at 13250 and the January low at 12770. Favor the downside below 13553. Resistance is 13425 and 13470.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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