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EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

2011-12-14 22:12:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_eurjpy.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The trend is down as long as price is below 10569 (December high) and focus is on the October low at 10075 and potential channelsupport near 9900 (at about 9904 Thursday and decreases 27 pips a day). Weakness may be overextended near term and bounces should encounter resistance at 10180 and 10240. Chart levels on a drop below 10075 are the June 2001 low at 9988 and the 2000 low at 8894.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_gbpjpy.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A head and shoulders continuation pattern may be unfolding from the September low. The pattern is bearish and a drop below 11936 would shift focus to the September low at 11683. The December high at 12266 is key to a near term bearish interpretation. 12115 is resistance.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_audjpy.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has dropped below the 20 day average, which shifts focus to the trendline that extends off of the October and November lows. That line is intersects with 7592 (former resistance) on Friday. 7675-7700 may provide support as well and resistance is 7760/85. I favor shorts into mentioned resistance against 7900 towards 7600.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_cadjpy.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY rally reversed before the trendline that extends off of the March, July, and October high, thus keeping focus on the trendline that extends off of the October and November lows. That line is at 7400 Thursday and increases about 5 pips per day. The 11/25 high at 7440 is also potential support. Expect resistance between 7530 and 7560.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_euraud.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A EURAUD triangle has been unfolding since January. Triangles consist of 5 waves (a-b-c-d-e) and sometimes one of the waves within a triangle is a triangle itself. That may be the case here with wave c. If it is, then the decline from 13809 is wave d and a final leg up into 13385-13485 (50%-61.8% retracement, 200 day average) will complete the triangle. Above 13809 would negate the pattern as described here.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly Bars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_eurgbp.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP decline has accelerated but price is nearing potential support from the January low at 8284 (reinforced by channel line), and August 2010 low at 8184. I favor selling into resistance at 8450/90 and risk should be kept to the December high of 8620.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

WeeklyBars

EURJPY_10_year_Low_body_eurcad.png, EURJPY Approaches 10 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“Since the January-June rally from 12771 to 14381, the EURCAD range has tightened.” Price is breaking a support line that extends off of the January and September lows which puts the September low of 13397 at risk. A long term trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 lows comes in to play at 13280 this week. The downside is favored against the December high (1st day of month) of 13763 and near term resistance is 13560 and 13605.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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