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EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

2011-12-09 20:24:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_euraud.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A EURAUD triangle has been unfolding since January but Thursday’s key reversal (bullish) and today’s push through the December 1 high warns that the breakdown may have to wait. Triangles consist of 5 waves (a-b-c-d-e) and sometimes one of the waves within a triangle is a triangle itself. That may be the case here with wave c. If it is, then the decline from 13809 is wave d and a final leg up into 13385-13485 (50%-61.8% retracement, 20 day and 200 day averages) will complete the triangle. Above 13809 would negate the pattern as described here. Near term support is 13090.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_eurjpy.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The long term trend must be considered down as long as price is below 11155 (October high) but the higher lows since the October low has me thinking that a large triangle may be unfolding. It is too early to make this statement with confidence but worth keeping in your mind as long as price is above 10247. A drop below there would shift focus to the October low and a pop above 10566 would give way to 10673 and 10825. These levels were resistance in November.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_gbpjpy.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

One can’t look at a long term GBPJPY chart and fail to notice the failed break of the 2009 low in September. Having held that low for over a month now, the upside demands respect above 11935. Near term price pattern is constructive above 11934 and exceeding 12265 would trigger a break towards 12390 and 12564. Support comes in from the October-November trendline.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_audjpy.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY decline reversed this morning just before the 20 day average. Like the AUDUSD, there is very little clarity at the current juncture which is why I favor specific trigger levels to determine a bias. A drop below today’s low would set sights on 7705 and the trendline from the October and November lows near 7600. Exceeding 8053 would shift focus to 8150 and the 200 day average at 8245. 7940 is short term resistance.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_cadjpy.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is nearing a trendline that extends off of the March, July, and October highs and a push through would be an early indication of a longer term trend change. Resistance on a break would be 7750 and 7800. Weakness below today’s low encounters 7513 and the trendline off of the October and November lows.

Euro / British Pound

Monthly Bars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_eurgbp.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The break of a year and a half trendline in the EURGBP shifts focus to a developing channel and former long term resistance trendline. These lines intersect in early 2012 near the 2011 low of 8285. The bounce last week has nearly been entirely retraced as the confluence of the 13 and 52 week averages and October breakdown level held strong. Use last month’s high (8663) as risk on shorts. Focus remains on the 2011 low below 8300.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

WeeklyBars

EURAUD_Key_Reversal-Sights_on_13400-13500_body_eurcad.png, EURAUD Key Reversal-Sights on 13400-13500

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“Since the January-June rally from 12771 to 14381, the EURCAD range has tightened.” Price is holding (weekly basis) a support line that extends off of the January and September lows which keeps a range bias towards intact towards 13760 and 13850 before the next wave of selling.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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