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EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

2011-12-07 23:07:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_euraud.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A EURAUD triangle has been unfolding since January and may be complete. The December 1 high can serve as risk for shorts playing the triangle breakout. Exceeding 13231 would shift focus to 13350-13400. Given that the triangle in question has been unfolding for a year, the break could be significant. 12000 is well within the realm of possibility in a short amount of time.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_eurjpy.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I looked at weekly charts last week and noted that “the decline from the April high takes the form of a 5 wave decline and channels perfectly (weekly closing prices). The combination of the weekly RSI divergence, 5 wave decline, and monthly key reversal (in October, which was followed by an inside month in November) makes the EURJPY a candidate for a major long term reversal.” Currently trading at the 20 day average, price pattern maintains a constructive bias above 10362. A drop below there would shift focus to 10250 (November low). Exceeding 10566 would shift focus to 10675 (and trendline).

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_gbpjpy.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

One can’t look at a long term GBPJPY chart and fail to notice the failed break of the 2009 low in September. Having held that low for over a month now, the upside demands respect above 11935. Near term price pattern is constructive above 12096 and exceeding 12265 would trigger an early month break towards 12390.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_audjpy.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

An AUDJPY triangle may be forming from the 11/30 high (like the AUDUSD). The implications over the next few days are for a terminal thrust (top and reversal) that ends above 7982. 8150 would be an objective in the event of a triangle break. Price needs to stay above 7882 in order for the bullish triangle scenario to remain favored.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_cadjpy.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is nearing a trendline that extends off of the March, July, and October highs and a push through would be an early indication of a longer term trend change. Resistance on a break would be 7750 and 7800. 7611 is critical to the near term bull case as a drop below would put the 20 day average in play at 7540.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_eurgbp.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The break of a year and a half trendline in the EURGBP shifts focus to a developing channel and former long term resistance trendline. These lines intersect in early 2012 near the 2011 low of 8285. The bounce last week has nearly been entirely retraced as the confluence of the 13 and 52 week averages and October breakdown level held strong. Use last week’s high (8618) as risk on shorts. Focus remains on the 2011 low below 8300.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

EURAUD_12_Month_Triangle_body_eurcad.png, EURUSD Testing Bottom of Year Long Triangle

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“Since the January-June rally from 12771 to 14381, the EURCAD range has tightened.” Price is breaking a support line that extends off of the January and September lows which shifts focus to the September low at 13396 and the line that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 lows (near 13300). Exceeding 13763 would suggest that the larger trend remains sideways.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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