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Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

2011-12-02 21:02:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_eurjpy.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY actually registered its lowest weekly close in over 10 years last week and created bullish divergence with RSI in the process (RSI is based on closing prices therefore RSI analysis should be done with closing prices). The decline from the April high takes the form of a 5 wave decline and channels perfectly (weekly closing prices). The combination of the weekly RSI divergence, 5 wave decline, and monthly key reversal (in October, which was followed by an inside month in November) makes the EURJPY a candidate for a major long term reversal. Price has trade to and exceeded its 20 day average, thus confirming near term upside momentum. The upside is favored against 10330.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_gbpjpy.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

One can’t look at a long term GBPJPY chart and fail to notice the failed break of the 2009 low in September. Having held that low for over a month now, the upside demands respect above 11935. Levels of interest next week are 12075-12100 on the downside and 12390 on the upside.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_audjpy.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY remains below the trendline that connects the 2011 highs but the same trendline on RSI has been broken (momentum typically signals a trend shift before price although false signals are inevitable). Near term, pattern and momentum favor a dip-support is 7860, 7780, and 7700. Weakness early next week may present a long opportunity.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_cadjpy.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is in the same situation as the AUDJPY, having rocketed off of the early October lows and possibly putting a secondary low in late October. Price is nearing a trendline that extends off of the March, July, and October highs and a push through would be an early indication of a longer term trend change. Expect a near term setback – support is 7585 and 7515.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly Bars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_eurgbp.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The break of a year and a half trendline in the EURGBP shifts focus to a developing channel and former long term resistance trendline. These lines intersect in early 2012 near the 2011 low of 8285. The bounce last week has nearly been entirely retraced as the confluence of the 13 and 52 week averages and October breakdown level held strong. Use last week’s high (8665) as risk on shorts. Focus remains on the 2011 low below 8300.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

WeeklyBars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_eurcad.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“Since the January-June rally from 12771 to 14381, the EURCAD range has tightened.” Price is at a support line that extends off of the January and September lows. Use this line as the pivot – a drop below would warrant a bearish stance but holding above keeps the tightening range intact.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Weekly Bars

Long_Term_Bottom_in_Yen_body_euraud.png, Long Term Bottom in Yen Crosses?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A triangle has been unfolding since January but be careful about jumping the gun on a breakout as a triangle within the triangle may be forming from the July low. It is not uncommon for one of the triangle legs (of which there are 5) to take the form of a triangle itself. A turn higher from the current level would encounter resistance at 13240, and 13350-13415.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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