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Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

2011-10-28 18:57:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily and 60 Minute Bars

Crosses102811_body_Picture_5.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Wednesday that “the thrust lower appears to have been from a b wave triangle thus focus has shifted higher towards 10650 and ultimately the high above 10750. A trendline that extends off of the April and July highs then comes into play near 11000.” Stay focused on the trendline (now closer to 10900) but a more bullish outcome seems likely as additional strength would confirm a head and shoulders bottom pattern. A Fibonacci objective rests at 11163 (near the late August high of 11195). 10640/80 serves as support.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses102811_body_gbpjpy.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A channel is developing from the September low so respect the potential for a break above 12260 and continuation into the trendline that extends off of the April and August highs. A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 12068. Coming under there would suggest that a larger corrective pattern (flat or triangle) is underway from the 10/17 high.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily and 60 Minute Bars

Crosses102811_body_Picture_7.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Wednesday’s comments were “look higher towards the former support line turned resistance (in red) near 8100. The September high and 200 day average at 8310 is also of interest.” The red line has been reached but yesterday’s extreme rally is more suggestive of the center of the trend (3rd wave) rather than the end. Weakness into 8000/40 would present an opportunity to get long for a run at 8280-8315 or even 8585.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses102811_body_cadjpy.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

With the CADJPY holding up, respect the potential for extended gains as long as price is above 7436. Trading above7709 would shift focus to the 100% extension of the rally from the low at 7933, which is in line with August and September resistance.

Euro / British Pound

Daily and 60 Minute Bars

Crosses102811_body_Picture_9.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Yesterday’s EURGBP rally is viewed as the beginning of the next bull leg that began in September. Focus over the next few weeks and months is the August high at 8884 and the 100% extension of the rally from the low at 8936. The channel also comes into play. 8745/70 is near term support and the upside is favored above 8669.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Weeklyand 300 Minute Bars

Crosses102811_body_Picture_10.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The EURAUD range since January has tightened. The entire formation may be a triangle that leads to a final thrust to new lows (below 12900).” The triangle interpretation looks more and more likely as price inches towards its ytd lows. I urge caution here though because triangles can get tricky towards their completions. Price could settle into a tighter upward sloping range before thrusting lower or thrust lower immediately. There is no trade at this level as reward/risk on the short side in unfavorable.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily and 60 MinuteBars

Crosses102811_body_Picture_11.png, Yen Crosses Expected to Extend Moves after Current Pause

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD pattern as presented above is at odds with an immediate EURAUD breakdown. The rally from 13924 is impulsive thus the bull side is favored against that level. Expect support at 14000/25. Potential resistance is defined by the June-August trendline.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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