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Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

2011-10-14 19:22:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses101411_body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY is above the trendline that extends off of the July, August, and September highs thus focus shifts to the 9/6 low at 8059. Keep and eye on the red trendline, which began as a support line but acted as resistance in early September. The implications are for some the rally to extend a bit before topping.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses101411_body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Slightly above the trendline that extends off of the July and August highs, focus is now on lows from August and September at 10783-10800. In bear markets, RSI will NOT reach an overbought level of 70 (notice that the tops in July and August were between 50 and 60). Currently at 59, the EURJPY needs to top soon in order for the larger trend to be considered down.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses101411_body_gbpjpy.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY is nearing its August low of 12332, which is now potential resistance. The trendline that extends off of the April and August highs is of interest but not until 12503 on Monday (decreases 11 pips per day). Respect the potential for a top to form soon as per divergence with RSI on intraday charts at the new high and daily RSI reaching its upper boundary for a bear market.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Crosses101411_body_cadjpy.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY rally is viewed as corrective. Specifically, strength is viewed as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the April high. Watch the Elliott channel for resistance which is at 7750 on Monday (decreases about 11 pips per day). August and September support at 7670 is also of interest.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses101411_body_eurcad.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Interestingly, the EURCAD looks quite bullish at the current level. Recent commentary was that “wave C is expected to complete the correction from 14130. The minimum objective is below 13853…” Since trading to 13824, the EURCAD hasn’t looked back. The rally from 13824 unfolded in an impulsive manner (5 waves) and composes wave 1 of the next move higher. The dip today may complete small wave 2. The current count gives scope to a break above 14130. 13823 is the pivot.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses101411_body_eurgbp.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP has broken through the trendline that extends off of the July and August highs. With a positively sloped 200 day average (price has also broken through the average) and the year + support line holding (after a few false breaks), look higher towards the summer highs near 8900.

Euro / Australian Dollar

300 MinuteBars

Crosses101411_body_euraud.png, Yen Crosses Nearing Critical Levels for Larger Bear

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD has retraced nearly 61.8% the advance from 12987. The 61.8% retracement, at 13407, is in the center of former congestion. Still, with no sign of support (yet), focus is on the 100% extension of the decline from 14087 at 13317 and the 9/19 pivot low at 13259.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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