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Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

2011-10-12 21:41:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Canadian Dollar

60 MinuteBars

Crosses101211_body_eurcad.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Interestingly, the EURCAD looks quite bullish at the current level. Recent commentary was that “wave C is expected to complete the correction from 14130. The minimum objective is below 13853…” Since trading to 13824, the EURCAD hasn’t looked back. The rally from 13824 unfolded in an impulsive manner (5 waves) and composes wave 1 of the next move higher. The dip to 13972 may complete small wave 2. The current count gives scope to a break above 14130.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses101211_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP has broken through the trendline that extends off of the July and August highs. With a positively sloped 200 day average (price has also broken through the average) and the year + support line holding (after a few false breaks), look higher towards the summer highs near 8900.

Euro / Australian Dollar

300 MinuteBars

Crosses101211_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD is well into its corrective decline from 14087, having retraced half the advance from 12987. It seems unlikely that the entire correction is complete but the first leg of a larger correction may be close to complete. The level that produced the low today is defined by the 50% retracement and 200 day average and a good place to expect a bounce. 13630/60 is short term resistance.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses101211_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has rallied 700 pips since putting in a low last Tuesday. It seems as though the rally is divided by the decline from 7679 to 7565. As such, I am treating this as a B wave in a sharp 3 wave rally from the low. Since corrective moves tend to sport equal legs, expect continued strength towards the 100% extension at 8042 (which intersects with a former low). Supports are 7815 and 7740/75.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses101211_body_eurjpy.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY has soared from its low to reach the 9/15 high at 10700 and trendline that extends from the July and August highs. The rally from the low is unfolding impulsively with today’s high composing a 3rd of a 3rd wave high. The implications are for a series of 4th and 5th waves into 10800. This means that the EURJPY is expected to continue higher but in more of a stair stepping fashion. 10625 and 10555/80 are supports.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Crosses101211_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY is in the same situation as the AUDJPY in that the rally appears to be unfolding in 3 waves (an extension into 5 is possible of course but I am leaning towards the bear side as per the recent momentum extremes on the downside). The 2 legs from the low would be equal at 12253 and there is also potential resistance from the 8/10 low at 12330.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Crosses101211_body_cadjpy.png, Euro Crosses Threaten Bullish Breakouts

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY rally is also viewed as corrective. Specifically, strength is viewed as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the April high. Watch the Elliott channel for resistance, which intersects former support at 7680 next week. 7550 and 7510 are short term supports.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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