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Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

2011-10-05 17:25:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

300 MinuteBars

Crosses100511_body_euraud.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD reversed sharply yesterday after trading into the 8/9 range and a short term top may be in place. The operative wave count treats the advance from 12987 as a 5 wave advance and yesterday’s high as a wave B unorthodox top. The implications are for weakness over the next few weeks towards and probably below 13644 to complete a flat correction.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

60 MinuteBars

Crosses100511_body_eurcad.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Short term EURCAD wave structure ‘fits’ with that of the EURAUD. That is, the advance from the September low is an impulse (5 waves) and waves A and B of a correction have unfolded since the top. Additional weakness in wave C is expected to complete the correction from 14130. The minimum objective is below 13853 and levels that may produce the low are 13760-13800 (50% retracement and former 4th wave).

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses100511_body_eurgbp.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP bounced from its low September low on Monday which keeps the range, primarily 8530-8800, intact. The bounce encounters resistance from former lows at 8650/70, the 200 day average at 8711, and the 9/28 high at 8740. The bearish channel can be used as a point of reference to structure trades with a stop above 8884 (look to short into channel resistance).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses100511_body_audjpy.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY reversed sharply yesterday very close to its 2010 low and channel that defines the decline from the April high. Interim resistance comes in at 7415 and 7550 but a run at the late September pivot of 7667 cannot be ruled out given the importance of the support that price has bounced from.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses100511_body_eurjpy.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY reversed at channel support yesterday but weakness should be respected as long as price is below the latest pivot high of 10494. Watch the short term trendline (dashed line) as trading through there would shift focus to 10494 then 10700.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses100511_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Relative GBP weakness is on display in the GBPJPY, which remains well within an Elliott channel from the August high. As long as price is below 12085, favor weakness in one more low to complete the decline from the August high. Trading above 12085 would shift focus higher to 12228 and 12330.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Crosses100511_body_cadjpy.png, Euro Crosses-Short Term Bearish but Long Term Bullish

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY reversed at the trendline that extends off of the June, August, and September lows yesterday and strength has resumed today. Focus is on resistance from 7427, 7491, and 7568. The larger trend is down but bear markets in risk experience sizeable countertrend rallies. Let it play out.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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