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Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

2011-09-30 20:12:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

300 MinuteBars

Crosses093011_body_euraud.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Wednesday that “a 5th wave rally appears to be underway now. Objectives are the former pivot at 14014 and a Fibonacci extension at 14055.” Continue to look higher as long as price is above its Elliott channel and specifically 13779. Weakness below there would suggest that a larger correction is underway towards 13650.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses093011_body_audjpy.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY break last week resulted in price dropping below the March low before price recovered to test former support from the August low. The downside remains favored towards the bottom of the channel and the May 2010 low at 7186. A test of this level may offer an opportunity to get long for a sharp recovery.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses093011_body_eurgbp.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP remains between several trendlines (a longer term line that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 lows and a shorter term line that extends off of the highs since July) but today’s drop gives scope to a bearish resolution. A drop below 8528 would shift focus to the channel underway from the July high. Until then, respect the range.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses093011_body_eurcad.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD drop below 13406 seems to have completed a 3 wave correction from the June high (flat). I wrote Wednesday that “price has roared higher and focus is now on the early month pivot at 14104. Any setback is a longer term bullish opportunity against the 13400 low.” The 14104 level has been reached and the EURCAD has pulled back a bit, thus presenting an opportunity against 13818 (as per the RSI positive reversal on the 300 minute chart). An extended advance could reach the recent highs at 14312 and 14381.

Euro / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Crosses093011_body_eurjpy.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Having broken the 2010 lows, focus is on the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2010 lows. The line is below 10100. Favor the downside as long as price is below 10494. Exceeding that level would shift focus to the recent 10700 pivot. Watch the Elliott channel resistance as well.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Crosses093011_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY is closing in on its Elliott channel (line parallel to waves 1 and 3 extended from wave 2) resistance now. The level is bolstered by former support at 12066. This is a good place for the top to form and for price to roll over and head lower in a 5th wave (within the 5 wave drop from 13083).

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Crosses093011_body_cadjpy.png, Euro / Aussie Remains Solid Risk Baromoter: Focus on 14055

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is at support from the downward sloping trendline, which is reinforced by the 100% extension of the decline from the 2010 high. Still, favor the downside into the 161.8% extension at 7160 until price can form a series of higher lows over several days.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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