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Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

2011-09-28 22:52:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses092811_body_euraud.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “a triangle may be underway. If so, then price will work higher over the next few weeks in order to complete wave E of the triangle before reversing lower. As such, I am bullish against 12987. While there may some resistance at 13645, a sharper advance upwards of 13872 is favored.” The EURAUD made it all the way to 13902 before slipping slower in what looks like a small 4th wave. A 5th wave rally appears to be underway now. Objectives are the former pivot at 14014 and a Fibonacci extension at 14055.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses092811_body_audjpy.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY break last week resulted in price dropping below the March low before price recovered to test former support from the August low. The downside remains favored towards the bottom of the channel and the May 2010 low at 7186. A test of this level may offer an opportunity to get long for a sharp advance.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses092811_body_eurgbp.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP is stuck between several trendlines, a longer term line that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 lows and a shorter term line that extends off of the highs since July. Price is also trading right at its 200 day average, indicative of the range that has developed in recent years. The spike low made in September has the look of an important low but markets usually range for a while before taking off in the opposite direction (in this case higher). Support is at 8636.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses092811_body_eurcad.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week that “a EURCAD drop below 13406 may actually complete a 3 wave correction from the June high (flat).” The EURCAD has roared higher and focus is now on the early month pivot at 14104. Any setback is a longer term bullish opportunity against the 13400 low. 13800 is support.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Crosses092811_body_eurjpy.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Having broken the 2010 lows, focus is on the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2010 lows. The line is below 10100. Favor the downside as long as price is below last week’s low of 10562. Exceeding that level would shift focus to former supports from earlier in the year near 10700.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Crosses092811_body_gbpjpy.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY has dropped below the 2009 low of 11880 and additional downside could test the former resistance line (throughout 2009 and 2010) near 11000 in October! Those playing the breakout should keep risk to last week’s high of 12127.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

WeeklyBars

Crosses092811_body_cadjpy.png, Euro / Australian Dollar Cross Could Reach Mid 14000s Soon

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote last week to “focus on the sharp downward sloping trendline (that extends off of the June and August lows).” Price found some support at the trendline, which is reinforced by the 100% extension of the decline from the 2010 high. Still, short term structure favors new lows. The next level of interest on the downside is a 161.8% extension of the decline from the April high (8949) at 7169.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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