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Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

2011-09-16 20:39:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses091611_body_euraud.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD has traded in a 1400 pip range since January with the latest advance (from the July low) and decline (from the August high) stopping just short of the respective range extremes. This slight tightening of the range hints that a triangle may be underway. If so, then price will work higher over the next few weeks in order to complete wave E of the triangle before reversing lower. As such, I am bullish against 12987. Near term supports are 13235 and 13175.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses091611_body_audjpy.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Wednesday that “price appears extended to the downside which gives scope to a rally into resistance from 8015/50. A larger bearish bias is warranted against the September 1 high of 8282 in anticipation of a break below the August low.” Pattern is now quite clear with the current rally composing wave iv of an impulse from the September high. Strength could extend into channel resistance near 8000 early next week but I expect weakness in a 5th wave towards 7750.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses091611_body_eurgbp.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP plummeted into trendline support on Monday before reversing sharply. Some consolidation seems in order given the moves of late. It is worth noting that price is at its 200 day average, which exhibits a positive slope (bullish). Near term support is 8685 and 8638. Weakness into these levels would present a long opportunity against the low (8528). Upside focus is on the resistance line that extends off of the July and August highs.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses091611_body_eurcad.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Near term, a EURCAD drop below 13406 may actually complete a 3 wave correction from the June high (flat). The decline would consist of 2 equal legs at 13337. Watch the channel support line for support as well early next week. The line is at 13350 on Monday.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses091611_body_eurjpy.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I’m zooming out a bit to show the break of the 2010 low. In fact, the EURJPY low this week at 10390 was its lowest price since June 2001. Recent strength stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 11192. More importantly, this is the same level that produced the January and March lows. As such, there is a bearish opportunity against 10700. Trading above there would shift focus to 10780 (former support).

British Pound / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Crosses091611_body_gbpjpy.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY has dropped to its lowest level since January 2009 and a test of that month’s low at 11880 and perhaps a break to lower levels must be considered. Yesterday’s key reversal gave way to an inside day – both patterns are viewed in a constructive light given the lowest daily RSI level (Thursday) since September 2009. Near term pattern is indicative of a triangle, so allow for a drop to a new low and perhaps 11880 before looking for a larger reversal. Near term resistance is the short term trendline.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Crosses091611_body_cadjpy.png, Australian Dollar Bearish Patterns against Euro and Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY traded slightly below its August low on Monday before reversing. As is the case with ‘risk trends’ in general, there is no compelling evidence to suggest that this is the bottom so favor the downside against the September 1 high of 7911. Measured objectives are 7345 and 7169. Exceeding the short term trendline would shift focus to the April-July trendline.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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