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Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

2011-08-24 23:21:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Weekly Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every Friday)

S3

S2

S1

PL

P

PH

R1

R2

R3

AUDCAD

1.0072

1.015

1.0223

1.0225

1.0249

1.0273

1.0375

1.0453

1.0527

AUDCHF

0.7668

0.788

0.802

0.7963

0.8028

0.8094

0.8371

0.8583

0.8722

AUDJPY

76.27

77.56

78.58

80.18

80.76

81.34

80.89

82.17

83.19

AUDNZD

1.2193

1.2303

1.2514

1.2526

1.2592

1.2658

1.2835

1.2945

1.3155

CADCHF

0.7526

0.7702

0.7807

0.7735

0.7794

0.7853

0.8088

0.8265

0.8370

CADJPY

75.07

76.00

76.62

78.07

78.91

79.74

78.17

79.10

79.72

CHFJPY

92.54

94.09

95.76

99.01

100.60

102.18

98.98

100.53

102.20

EURAUD

1.3470

1.3559

1.3694

1.3601

1.3677

1.3752

1.3917

1.4006

1.4141

EURCAD

1.3925

1.3997

1.4117

1.3904

1.4015

1.4126

1.4309

1.4380

1.4501

EURCHF

1.0708

1.0929

1.1113

1.0811

1.0973

1.1136

1.1519

1.1739

1.1924

EURGBP

0.8475

0.8564

0.8652

0.8748

0.8756

0.8764

0.8828

0.8917

0.9004

EURJPY

107.06

108.04

109.09

110.46

110.78

111.09

111.13

112.10

113.16

EURNZD

1.6658

1.6851

1.7227

1.6989

1.7194

1.7399

1.7797

1.7990

1.8367

GBPAUD

1.5189

1.5377

1.5593

1.5590

1.5663

1.5736

1.5997

1.6185

1.6401

GBPCAD

1.5719

1.5874

1.6074

1.5965

1.6068

1.6171

1.6429

1.6585

1.6785

GBPCHF

1.2140

1.2416

1.2663

1.2340

1.2530

1.2721

1.3187

1.3463

1.3710

GBPJPY

122.92

123.94

124.93

126.29

126.68

127.06

126.93

127.95

128.94

GBPNZD

1.8860

1.9129

1.9629

1.9484

1.9699

1.9915

2.0398

2.0667

2.1167

NZDCAD

0.7801

0.7940

0.8012

0.8118

0.8153

0.8187

0.8223

0.8362

0.8434

NZDCHF

0.6022

0.6218

0.6316

0.6376

0.6389

0.6402

0.6611

0.6807

0.6905

NZDJPY

59.86

61.18

61.87

63.41

64.27

65.13

63.88

65.20

65.89

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Crosses082411_body_eurgbp.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

After rallying to test its July high, the EURGBP reversed but a support line that connects the January, February, and August lows remains in place. One more run at 8882 cannot be ruled out given the ranging nature of this market in recent months. Dropping to a new low for the month would shift focus to the next support line which is drawn off of the 2010 and January 2011 lows.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

300 MinuteBars

Crosses082411_body_eurcad.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD has drifted higher over the last week in what may be a 5th wave and therefore complete an impulse from the July low. If this count is correct, then the EURCAD should begin a larger correction, eventually dropping below 13990 before the next bull leg resumes. Today’s inside day may mark the beginning of the correction. Of note is the June high at 14379.

Euro / Australian Dollar

300 MinuteBars

Crosses082411_body_euraud.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The EURAUD rally from 12926 is in 5 waves and appears to have culminated with Monday’s reversal. The goal over the next several days and weeks should be to identify a secondary low. The 50% retracement at 13592 (reinforced by the 100% extension of the decline from 14258) and former 4th wave extreme at 13668 is a zone that may produce the bottom.” Price has slowly declined (as a correction should) and a low may be in place.

Euro / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Crosses082411_body_eurjpy.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Last update I wrote that “the run at the high appears impulsive on short term charts so I am treating the move as a truncation. The implications are for weakness under 10980 before a secondary low forms.” The EURJPY dropped to 10900 and the next leg is probably underway towards the 100% extension at 11200. Exceeding that level would target the short term channel line. The larger trend is down as long as price is within the channel that has defined the decline from the April high.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Crosses082411_body_gbpjpy.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The structure from the low is an impulse and therefore most likely the first bull move in a larger (either a 3 or 5 wave) sequence. Expectations are for weakness below 12520 before a secondary low forms.” The GBPJPY decline has stalled at 12560 but a small flat may be complete. Additional weakness would expose support at 12500. Resistance is 12840 and 12900.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

300 MinuteBars

Crosses082411_body_cadjpy.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The drop late last week may complete a small 3rd wave decline. I view strength since then as corrective therefore a pop above 7846 or even a test of 7960 would be considered a short candidate. The March low is at 7673 and a break would target the 100% extension of the decline from April 2010 to August 2010 at 7345.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses082411_body_audjpy.png, Opportunities to Short Yen Crosses on Next Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY rally from the low is viewed as corrective and should be retraced. A pop above 8120 would face resistance at 8200 (former support). The minimum bearish objective is below 7652 but the March low is at risk in the event of another panic drop. If that level (7405) gives, then the May 2010 low comes into play at 7185.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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