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Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

2011-07-15 23:42:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

109.85

111.67

114.25

115.69

116.45

118.65

120.47

123.05

GBPJPY

DN

120.63

124.39

126.84

129.94

131.25

133.05

136.80

139.26

CADJPY

UP

78.77

79.99

81.80

82.74

83.32

84.84

86.06

87.87

AUDJPY

UP

80.86

82.45

84.41

85.82

86.19

87.97

89.56

91.52

EURGBP

UP

0.8466

0.8593

0.8814

0.8894

0.8988

0.9162

0.9289

0.9510

EURCAD

UP

1.3179

1.3501

1.3735

1.4013

1.4101

1.4291

1.4613

1.4847

EURAUD

DN

1.2855

1.3115

1.3319

1.3552

1.3606

1.3784

1.4043

1.4248

EURNZD

DN

1.7621

1.7690

0.0070

1.6628

1.7005

1.7243

1.7551

1.7690

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every Friday)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

DN

110.65

112.65

113.73

115.27

116.20

116.82

118.82

119.90

GBPJPY

DN

126.43

127.62

128.44

129.45

129.83

130.45

131.65

132.47

CADJPY

UP

81.23

82.28

82.94

83.80

84.19

84.66

85.71

86.37

AUDJPY

UP

84.54

85.41

85.99

86.71

86.99

87.43

88.30

88.88

EURGBP

DN

0.8599

0.8731

0.8803

0.8905

0.8965

0.9007

0.9139

0.9211

EURCAD

DN

1.3256

1.3449

1.3594

1.3763

1.3811

1.3932

1.4124

1.4269

EURAUD

DN

1.2772

1.2993

1.3125

1.3302

1.3392

1.3479

1.3701

1.3833

EURNZD

DN

1.6212

1.6602

1.6809

1.7107

1.7291

1.7405

1.7796

1.8002

Euro / British Pound

60 Minute Bars

Crosses071511_body_eurgbp.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

After trading through 9042, an important top appears to be in place. The EURGBP has dropped beneath the short term line that extends off of the 5/26 and 6/16 lows and the underside of that line is now resistance near 8850. Expect support over the next few days from the 2011 trendline (extended from January, February, and May lows). That line is at about 8725 the rest of this week. A dip to there would probably complete 5 waves down from 9082 and present a longer term opportunity to short the coming bounce into 8850-8900.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses071511_body_eurcad.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD has dropped below the May low of 13633 which “completes a double top with the May and June highs. The traditional double top measuring technique (width of the consolidation extended from the breakout level) produces a 12970 objective. Other levels of interest include the February low at 13257 and the January low at 12778.” The EURCAD bounced after stalling at channel support and the next wave lower may be underway.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

Crosses071511_body_euraud.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The extremely bearish 1-2-i-ii count remains favored. The implications from the series of 1st and 2nd waves are for extended weakness below the December low of 12925. Like the EURCAD, the decline in the EURAUD reversed at parallel channel resistance. Initial resistance has been reached at 13300 and I favor selling this bounce but do not dismiss potential for additional strength into 13375 (former support) before the larger decline resumes.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses071511_body_eurjpy.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY (and all Yen crosses) has plunged through the beginning of July but turned on a dime at parallel channel support 2 days ago. Ultimately, a break below the 2010 low of 10542 must be considered but near term focus is higher into resistance at 11340 and 11465.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses071511_body_gbpjpy.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY also found support from its channel and initial resistance has been reached at 12814 (former support) – the next resistance is 12900. The recent bottom was also within pips of where the decline from the April high would consist of 2 equal legs. This is a characteristic found in corrections so a much larger rally – towards the April high of 14000, is a possibility from these depressed levels.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Crosses071511_body_cadjpy.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY quickly retraced its rally from the June low before turning up. A range appears to be developing between roughly 8120 and 8500. 8300/40 (current level) is potential short term resistance over the next few days.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Crosses071511_body_audjpy.png, Opportunity to Buy Australian Dollar against Euro

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

After slipping below its June low, the AUDJPY carved out a key reversal and focus is now on short term resistance between 8570 and 8620. Focus on these shorter term levels (mentioned resistance and support at 8460) as the bigger picture trend is unclear. 8230, the 50% retracement and parallel channel support, should prove formidable as support if reached.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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