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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-05-18 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

109.77

113.12

116.62

119.90

120.05

123.47

126.82

130.32

GBPJPY

UP

125.32

129.15

132.36

135.87

136.49

139.39

143.22

146.43

CADJPY

UP

78.85

81.71

83.78

86.25

87.05

88.72

91.58

93.65

AUDJPY

UP

82.28

84.04

86.49

87.91

88.60

90.70

92.47

94.91

EURGBP

UP

0.8510

0.8612

0.8733

0.8825

0.8845

0.8956

0.9058

0.9179

EURCAD

UP

1.3067

1.3328

1.3650

1.3881

1.3941

1.4232

1.4493

1.4815

EURAUD

DN

1.2968

1.3227

1.3359

1.3554

1.3681

1.3749

1.4008

1.4139

EURNZD

UP

1.8310

1.8327

0.0018

1.7246

1.7612

1.7943

1.8292

1.8327

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every Friday)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

DN

109.27

111.39

112.66

114.36

115.20

116.05

118.16

119.44

GBPJPY

DN

125.54

127.91

129.32

131.21

132.16

133.10

135.47

136.88

CADJPY

DN

79.78

81.29

82.28

83.52

84.05

84.77

86.28

87.27

AUDJPY

DN

80.93

82.91

84.14

85.74

86.49

87.35

89.33

90.56

EURGBP

DN

0.8506

0.8589

0.8651

0.8723

0.8745

0.8795

0.8878

0.8940

EURCAD

DN

1.3275

1.3454

1.3566

1.3711

1.3780

1.3857

1.4036

1.4148

EURAUD

DN

1.3041

1.3134

1.3237

1.3326

1.3335

1.3433

1.3527

1.3630

EURNZD

DN

1.7415

1.7626

1.7779

1.7961

1.8020

1.8143

1.8355

1.8508

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

05-18-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Friday that “price must turn up from here if the larger trend remains up. The 9158 objective intersects short term channel resistance on June 6th and longer term channel resistance on June 17th.” The EURGBP has turned up which keeps long cited objective near 9160 intact. 8750/85 is short term support. Any weakness below 8672 would negate the bullish structure. The 61.8% retracement of the decline from 9042 is at 8900 and is potential near term resistance.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyCandles

05-18-11crosses_body_eurusd.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

As expected, the EURCAD found support from the 4/19 low and 200 day average. I wrote Friday that “a rally into resistance over the next week + would present a short opportunity. I’m pegging 13825-14000 as resistance for now.” The EURCAD has bounced but it’s unclear if the secondary top is in place. Resistance would be strong at 13990 (former resistance, support and the 50% retracement of the decline from 14339). A rally to there would also trace out the right shoulder of a potential head and shoulders top. My gut tells me that this level will be tested.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

05-18-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD has bounced from it corrective channel bottom and retraced a portion of the decline from 13928. As is the case with the EURCAD, it is unclear whether or not the corrective advance is complete. Additional strength would face resistance from 13480 (former support and 20 day average), 13580 (50% retracement) and 13660 (61.8% retracement). Uncertainty is high at this juncture and it is best to wait for a clearer signal.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-18-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Friday that “the EURJPY is nearing the 11325 measured level and 200 day average so I’m the lookout for formation of a low early next week.” Price found a low on Monday and is now 300 pips off of the low. The decline from 12332 is clearly in 3 waves (to this point) and the reversal near parallel channel support increases confidence in the bullish bias. Look higher towards at least 11850 over the next several days (there will be corrections of course-and I’ll attempt to identify them in real time). Looking out further, it is possible that the decline from 12332 is just the first drop in a larger corrective pattern (more on this in the GBPJPY).

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-18-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The decline in the GBPJPY from 14001 unfolded in 5 waves (impulsive) therefore expectations are for a corrective rally before additional weakness below 13027. Expect at least a test of 13400 and probably a move into the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci zone of 13514-13629.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

05-18-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY continues to respect its 200 day average (as support). The decline from 8951 is clearly in 3 waves which favors an eventual break above 8951. Near term, look higher towards the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 8951 at 8675.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-18-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY held above its 5/5 low and focus is on 8810 and the top at 9002. The decline from the top retraced a little more than one third of the advance from 7458. We’ve not enough information to know if the decline to 8431 is the complete correction or just a portion of it. The picture should come into focus soon enough. Regardless, the near term trend is up towards the mentioned levels.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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