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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-05-13 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

109.77

113.12

116.62

119.90

120.05

123.47

126.82

130.32

GBPJPY

UP

125.32

129.15

132.36

135.87

136.49

139.39

143.22

146.43

CADJPY

UP

78.85

81.71

83.78

86.25

87.05

88.72

91.58

93.65

AUDJPY

UP

82.28

84.04

86.49

87.91

88.60

90.70

92.47

94.91

EURGBP

UP

0.8510

0.8612

0.8733

0.8825

0.8845

0.8956

0.9058

0.9179

EURCAD

UP

1.3067

1.3328

1.3650

1.3881

1.3941

1.4232

1.4493

1.4815

EURAUD

DN

1.2968

1.3227

1.3359

1.3554

1.3681

1.3749

1.4008

1.4139

EURNZD

UP

1.8310

1.8327

0.0018

1.7246

1.7612

1.7943

1.8292

1.8327

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every Friday)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

DN

109.27

111.39

112.66

114.36

115.20

116.05

118.16

119.44

GBPJPY

DN

125.54

127.91

129.32

131.21

132.16

133.10

135.47

136.88

CADJPY

DN

79.78

81.29

82.28

83.52

84.05

84.77

86.28

87.27

AUDJPY

DN

80.93

82.91

84.14

85.74

86.49

87.35

89.33

90.56

EURGBP

DN

0.8506

0.8589

0.8651

0.8723

0.8745

0.8795

0.8878

0.8940

EURCAD

DN

1.3275

1.3454

1.3566

1.3711

1.3780

1.3857

1.4036

1.4148

EURAUD

DN

1.3041

1.3134

1.3237

1.3326

1.3335

1.3433

1.3527

1.3630

EURNZD

DN

1.7415

1.7626

1.7779

1.7961

1.8020

1.8143

1.8355

1.8508

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

05-13-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP has tumbled to parallel channel support and price must turn up from here if the larger trend remains up. The 9158 objective intersects short term channel resistance on June 6th and longer term channel resistance on June 17th. A daily close below 8672 would suggest that an important top is in place at 9042 (that does not mean that there will not be corrective rallies however). Rallying above 8817 would be viewed as constructive.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

05-13-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD has fallen off a cliff but may find some support near the current level. The 13589-13658 zone is defined by the 4/1 low and 4/19 low as well as the topside of a former long term resistance line and the 200 day average. A rally into resistance over the next week + would present a short opportunity. I’m pegging 13825-14000 as resistance for now.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

05-13-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Not much has changed from Wednesday’s commentary in which I wrote that “a daily close below the channel would suggest that a 3rd wave is indeed underway towards 12926. Staying within the channel keeps the larger corrective pattern (in which price likely finds a low near 13300 before rallying back towards 14343) valid.” Understanding market tendencies helps in determining a bias here – the opening range of the month has been broken to the downside so the larger trend is probably down. Still, allow for a bounce and/or some consolidation before shorting and targeting the lows below 13000. 13480 is resistance. You may wish to watch the 20 day average for resistance also – which is at 13511 today (5/13/11).

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-13-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Wednesday that “it is unlikely that this is the secondary low. The 30yr bond (which correlates closely with the Yen – as both are safe haven assets) appears poised to test above 126 before rolling over. As such, a test of the 61.8% retracement at 11325 may be in the cards for the EURJPY. This level is reinforced by the 200 day average and 3/24 low.” The EURJPY is nearing the 11325 measured level and 200 day average so I’m the lookout for formation of a low early next week. A panic drop could extend as far as the 161.8% extension at 11075.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-13-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

My EURJPY comments can be applied to all Yen crosses. That is, expect lows to form early next week. With respect to the GBPJPY, the 61.8% retracement of the advance from 12293 sat 12946 is a level of interest. Keep an eye on parallel channel support as well.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

05-13-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is at its 200 day average but focus is on the low at 8228. I’m looking for at least a test of 8200 as risk aversion extends into next week. A deeper drop could test support from the 78.6% retracement of the advance from 7737, at 8000. Again, watch channel support.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-13-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I maintain that the AUDJPY bounce is likely to be fully retraced. There are several measured levels in the 8200s, including the 100% extension of the 9002-8431 decline (8239), the 50% retracement of the rally from 7457 (8230), and the 200 day average (8217). A number of measurements in one place tend to act like a magnet for price.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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