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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-03-30 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

107.60

109.19

111.04

112.49

112.76

114.48

116.06

117.92

GBPJPY

UP

126.05

128.46

130.69

133.01

133.19

135.33

137.74

139.96

CADJPY

UP

78.54

80.07

82.10

83.38

83.89

85.67

87.20

89.24

AUDJPY

UP

79.15

80.45

81.86

83.10

83.22

84.57

85.87

87.29

EURGBP

DN

0.8129

0.8242

0.8367

0.8474

0.8485

0.8604

0.8717

0.8841

EURCAD

DN

1.2703

1.2980

1.3196

1.3442

1.3503

1.3688

1.3965

1.4181

EURAUD

DN

1.2826

1.3064

1.3308

1.3543

1.3549

1.3790

1.4028

1.4272

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

111.57

112.56

113.56

114.54

114.55

115.55

116.53

117.54

GBPJPY

UP

126.62

128.40

129.42

130.82

131.57

132.22

133.99

135.02

CADJPY

UP

80.43

81.16

82.01

82.68

82.80

83.59

84.32

85.18

AUDJPY

UP

77.90

79.08

81.25

81.93

82.93

84.61

85.79

87.96

EURGBP

UP

0.8528

0.8591

0.8685

0.8732

0.8763

0.8842

0.8904

0.8998

EURCAD

UP

1.3514

1.3640

1.3726

1.3832

1.3873

1.3938

1.4064

1.4150

EURAUD

DN

1.2965

1.3336

1.3530

1.3813

1.3991

1.4096

1.4468

1.4662

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Weekly Bars

03-30-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The time consumed since the early January low along with the break above long term trendline requires us to consider a more immediate bullish possibility. 8940 is now in focus and trading above there would bring an end to the series of lower highs since the December 2008 / January 2009 high. Any weakness should be analyzed in the event that it is corrective. Support comes in at 8715 and 8670.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

03-30-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURCAD is just above trendline support. The sideways consolidation from the January high unfolded as a triangle therefore the rally that reversed just shy of 14000 is viewed as a terminal thrust. The risk then is to the downside. 13770 and 13810 are short term resistance levels.

Euro / Australian Dollar

240 MinuteBars

03-30-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD rally from the December low is in 2 equal legs. Moves that divide into equal legs are hallmarks of corrections and the sharp decline this week is impulsive. A bounce near term is likely given the clear divergence with RSI on the 240 minute chart. 13861-13928 is resistance.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

03-30-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURJPY has soared and is now trading at its highest since May 2010. There is the specter of parallel channel resistance just above the current price but the next chart level is not until the February low of 11964. Former resistance at 11600 and 11555 are now supports.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-30-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY has rallied over 300 pips the last 2 days to exceed the 3/22 high. The sharp turn higher shifts focus now to 13551 and then 13776. 13245 and 13180 are short term supports. Structure is bullish above 13011.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

03-30-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

After taking out its August 2010 high, the CADJPY has retraced over 100% of the decline from the February high. The next chart level is a pivot high from July at 8644 and the next measured level is the 100% extension of the rally from 7738, at 8826. 8450/70 is short term support.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

03-30-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The AUDJPY has retraced more than 100% of its decline from the February high in 9 days (9 consecutive up days nonetheless). Near term, the move is clearly stretched and in need of a price and time correction. 8420 -8340 is the initial support with a drop below targeting 8210.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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