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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-03-25 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

107.60

109.19

111.04

112.49

112.76

114.48

116.06

117.92

GBPJPY

UP

126.05

128.46

130.69

133.01

133.19

135.33

137.74

139.96

CADJPY

UP

78.54

80.07

82.10

83.38

83.89

85.67

87.20

89.24

AUDJPY

UP

79.15

80.45

81.86

83.10

83.22

84.57

85.87

87.29

EURGBP

DN

0.8129

0.8242

0.8367

0.8474

0.8485

0.8604

0.8717

0.8841

EURCAD

DN

1.2703

1.2980

1.3196

1.3442

1.3503

1.3688

1.3965

1.4181

EURAUD

DN

1.2826

1.3064

1.3308

1.3543

1.3549

1.3790

1.4028

1.4272

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

100.46

103.74

108.99

111.28

113.26

117.52

120.80

126.06

GBPJPY

UP

115.35

119.14

124.95

127.73

129.75

134.54

138.34

144.14

CADJPY

DN

70.71

74.04

77.93

80.99

81.55

85.16

88.50

92.39

AUDJPY

UP

66.84

70.71

75.46

78.89

79.77

84.09

87.95

92.71

EURGBP

UP

0.8516

0.8570

0.8652

0.8692

0.8720

0.8788

0.8842

0.8924

EURCAD

UP

1.3205

1.3363

1.3659

1.3747

1.3885

1.4112

1.4270

1.4566

EURAUD

UP

1.3265

1.3503

1.3868

1.4041

1.4169

1.4471

1.4708

1.5073

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

03-23-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A head and shoulders continuation pattern appears to be unfolding from the June 2010 low. I wrote Wednesday that “a slight new high cannot be ruled out but risk has now shifted to the downside. 8800 is resistance. A drop under 8532 confirms a reversal.” The EURGBP reached 8800 to test the parallel neckline resistance. I favor the downside from here.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

03-23-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Like the EURGBP, the EURCAD from the June low takes the shape of a head and shoulders continuation pattern. I continue to watch the line parallel to the neckline for resistance (just above 14000), which was just missed on Monday. What’s more, last Friday’s rally was a ‘large range’ bar which indicates a panic move. Such days can be used as points of reference. A daily close under the Friday low of 13745 would increase the probability that a top of increased importance is in place.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

03-23-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD rally from the low is in 2 equal legs. Moves that divide into equal legs are hallmarks of corrections and the sharp decline this week may be unfolding as an impulse (5 waves). A bounce near term is likely from the short term support line. 13860-13930 is a resistance zone.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-23-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

On a net basis, the EURJPY is relatively unchanged since late February. Tell that to anyone that has been in the market since then and they’ll slap you silly. Quite simply, the EURJPY is in a range between 107 and 11500 (and has been since mid 2010). I am cautiously bearish with price near the upper end of its range now. 11200 and 11070 are supports.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

60 Minute Bars

03-23-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

What applies to the EURJPY applies here as well. That is, price is unchanged on a net basis since February. Last week’s panic decline resulted in the GBPJPY trading at its lowest level since January 2009 (briefly) before the snap back to current levels. The rally from the low unfolded in 5 waves which suggests that the GBPJPY is forming a bullish base. 13170 is near term resistance and support is expected in the 50%-61.8% retracement at 12677-12796.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

60 MinuteBars

03-23-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The CADJPY took out its prior 8 months of gains in a matter of minutes last Wednesday before snapping back to trade back into the 80s. The structure of the rally from the 2009 low (6840) is clearly corrective and should therefore be entirely retraced. Near term, the rally from the low is corrective (like the USDJPY) unless one counts the rally from 8172 as a truncated 5th, which is certainly possible. In any case, look lower from here to below 8172 towards 8045 and 7972 (50% and 61.8% retracements).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-23-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The choppy rally from the 2010 low was nearly entirely retraced last Wednesday but the AUDJPY is right back testing its former support line (now as resistance). The vertical rise has spanned over 900 pips since last Wednesday with interruption from 2 corrections that are a little over 100 pips each. Clearly stretched, weakness would target support at 8215, 8130, and 8015. Additional strength targets 8400 and the top of the range at 8446.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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