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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-03-16 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

107.60

109.19

111.04

112.49

112.76

114.48

116.06

117.92

GBPJPY

UP

126.05

128.46

130.69

133.01

133.19

135.33

137.74

139.96

CADJPY

UP

78.54

80.07

82.10

83.38

83.89

85.67

87.20

89.24

AUDJPY

UP

79.15

80.45

81.86

83.10

83.22

84.57

85.87

87.29

EURGBP

DN

0.8129

0.8242

0.8367

0.8474

0.8485

0.8604

0.8717

0.8841

EURCAD

DN

1.2703

1.2980

1.3196

1.3442

1.3503

1.3688

1.3965

1.4181

EURAUD

DN

1.2826

1.3064

1.3308

1.3543

1.3549

1.3790

1.4028

1.4272

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

DN

110.37

111.64

112.70

113.87

114.09

115.04

116.32

117.38

GBPJPY

DN

126.69

128.78

130.17

131.91

132.60

133.65

135.73

137.13

CADJPY

DN

81.25

82.42

83.25

84.25

84.60

85.24

86.42

87.24

AUDJPY

DN

80.20

81.07

82.00

82.84

82.90

83.80

84.67

85.60

EURGBP

UP

0.8444

0.8488

0.8566

0.8593

0.8627

0.8688

0.8732

0.8810

EURCAD

UP

1.3163

1.3275

1.3400

1.3507

1.3518

1.3637

1.3749

1.3874

EURAUD

UP

1.3487

1.3581

1.3645

1.3724

1.3755

1.3804

1.3898

1.3962

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

03-16-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A head and shoulders continuation pattern appears to be unfolding from the June 2010 low. 8742 is a measured objective (resistance) but the rally has stalled at a long term trendline (since 2008) thus the risk of a turn lower from here is heightened.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

03-16-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Like the EURGBP, the EURCAD from the June low takes the shape of a head and shoulders continuation pattern. The move above 13776 suggests a test of 14000 before price attempts to carve out a top. Watch the line parallel to the neckline for resistance as well (just above 14000).

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

03-16-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The EURAUD rally from 12925 is the strongest since May and suggests that an important low is in place. A support line is holding as is the 20 day average (this is support near 13650). Trade above 13878 would signal an end to the series of lower highs but also encounter the 200 day average.” The 200 day average has been exceeded without a problem. 14250-14370 is a resistance area (100% extension of the rally from the low and October high). Trading above the corrective channel would suggest that the rally is a 3rd wave and focus would shift to 14843 (161.8% extension).

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-16-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I wrote Friday that “the EURJPY has seen quite a reversal, having endured a roundtrip from the 3/3 low. Do not dismiss the potential for an important top to form as the recent high is not confirmed with a higher RSI.” The EURJPY has plunged and focus is on the 2010 low of 10540. A break below would shift focus to 100 (June 2001 low). Do keep in mind that the range from the June 2010 low remains intact.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

03-16-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Zooming out to take a view at the weekly, we see that the GBPJPY is closing in its January 2009 low. Former lows are now probable support at 12550 and 12650. In the event of a break below 11883, support is anyone’s guess, but I would focus on round figures such as 115 and 110.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

03-16-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The CADJPY has already dropped below its 2010 low! There is potential support from the 61.8% extension of the decline from the 2010 high at 7565. The next level of support is not until the 6840-7565 region. This area is defined by the 100% extension and the 2009 low. There is little doubt that the rally from the 2009 low is corrective, which means it will be broken.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-16-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I wrote Friday that “the break of trendline support gives scope to further losses and signals that the entire advance from the 2010 low may be complete with wave C as a diagonal (rising wedge). I cautiously favor the downside against the high.” Diagonals are retraced quickly and this rally has nearly been fully retraced in one week! Focus is on the 7185 low and then 6836 (100% extension).

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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