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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-03-11 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

107.60

109.19

111.04

112.49

112.76

114.48

116.06

117.92

GBPJPY

UP

126.05

128.46

130.69

133.01

133.19

135.33

137.74

139.96

CADJPY

UP

78.54

80.07

82.10

83.38

83.89

85.67

87.20

89.24

AUDJPY

UP

79.15

80.45

81.86

83.10

83.22

84.57

85.87

87.29

EURGBP

DN

0.8129

0.8242

0.8367

0.8474

0.8485

0.8604

0.8717

0.8841

EURCAD

DN

1.2703

1.2980

1.3196

1.3442

1.3503

1.3688

1.3965

1.4181

EURAUD

DN

1.2826

1.3064

1.3308

1.3543

1.3549

1.3790

1.4028

1.4272

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

108.68

110.32

112.71

113.97

114.72

116.74

118.37

120.76

GBPJPY

UP

127.72

129.48

131.67

133.23

133.65

135.63

137.39

139.58

CADJPY

DN

81.59

82.51

83.52

84.39

84.48

85.44

86.36

87.37

AUDJPY

DN

81.31

81.96

82.69

83.30

83.38

84.06

84.71

85.44

EURGBP

UP

0.8355

0.8407

0.8501

0.8533

0.8574

0.8647

0.8700

0.8794

EURCAD

UP

1.3232

1.3309

1.3460

1.3501

1.3574

1.3688

1.3766

1.3917

EURAUD

UP

1.3254

1.3385

1.3588

1.3682

1.3755

1.3922

1.4052

1.4255

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

03-11-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A head and shoulders continuation pattern appears to be unfolding from the June 2010 low. Look higher from here but 8742 is a measured objective and intersects with resistance from several upward sloping channel lines and a long term resistance line is just above 8700 on Monday. 8532 is the pivot.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

03-11-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Like the EURGBP, the EURCAD from the June low takes the shape of a head and shoulders continuation pattern. It is unclear if 13776 is the top of the right shoulder. A move above there would suggest a test of 14000 before price attempts to carve out a top. Coming under 13256 would indicate that 13776 is most likely the top. The 20, 50, and 200 day averages are holding, which favors a push above 13776.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

03-11-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD rally from 12925 is the strongest since May and suggests that an important low is in place. A support line is holding as is the 20 day average (this is support near 13650). Trade above 13878 would signal an end to the series of lower highs but also encounter the 200 day average. I am bullish as long as price is above 13502. Under there would give scope to a drop under 13300.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-11-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURJPY has seen quite a reversal, having endured a roundtrip from the 3/3 low. Weakness below 11195 is needed in order to suggest that an important top is in place. That level is reinforced by the 50 day average at 11210 and the 200 day average at 11155. Do not dismiss the potential for an important top to form as the recent high is not confirmed with a higher RSI.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-11-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY has plummeted from Thursday’s high and already reached the 100% extension of the initial decline. Price is also just below its 50 and 200 day averages, which are at the same level (indicative of the sideways trade over the last many months). Focus is on the January low at 12950.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

03-11-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The CADJPY has plunged from its recent high to meet the 50 day average. The trend is considered bullish as long as price is above the trendline that extends off of the October and January lows. The line is reinforced by the 200 day average as well. A drop below would suggest that the trend has reversed.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-11-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The slight new high satisfies minimum expectations for wave v of the diagonal from 7266.” The break of trendline support gives scope to further losses and signals that the entire advance from the 2010 low may be complete with wave C as a diagonal (rising wedge). I cautiously favor the downside against the high. The next level of interest on the downside is 8095.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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