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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-03-09 23:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

107.60

109.19

111.04

112.49

112.76

114.48

116.06

117.92

GBPJPY

UP

126.05

128.46

130.69

133.01

133.19

135.33

137.74

139.96

CADJPY

UP

78.54

80.07

82.10

83.38

83.89

85.67

87.20

89.24

AUDJPY

UP

79.15

80.45

81.86

83.10

83.22

84.57

85.87

87.29

EURGBP

DN

0.8129

0.8242

0.8367

0.8474

0.8485

0.8604

0.8717

0.8841

EURCAD

DN

1.2703

1.2980

1.3196

1.3442

1.3503

1.3688

1.3965

1.4181

EURAUD

DN

1.2826

1.3064

1.3308

1.3543

1.3549

1.3790

1.4028

1.4272

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

108.68

110.32

112.71

113.97

114.72

116.74

118.37

120.76

GBPJPY

UP

127.72

129.48

131.67

133.23

133.65

135.63

137.39

139.58

CADJPY

DN

81.59

82.51

83.52

84.39

84.48

85.44

86.36

87.37

AUDJPY

DN

81.31

81.96

82.69

83.30

83.38

84.06

84.71

85.44

EURGBP

UP

0.8355

0.8407

0.8501

0.8533

0.8574

0.8647

0.8700

0.8794

EURCAD

UP

1.3232

1.3309

1.3460

1.3501

1.3574

1.3688

1.3766

1.3917

EURAUD

UP

1.3254

1.3385

1.3588

1.3682

1.3755

1.3922

1.4052

1.4255

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

03-09-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A head and shoulders continuation pattern appears to be unfolding from the June 2010 low. What is unclear of course is whether or not the right shoulder top is in place yet (8672). 8742 is a measured objective to watch in the event that 8672 fails to hold. You’ll also want to watch the upward sloping channel lines for resistance. A drop under 8460 would suggest that the top is in place.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

03-09-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Like the EURGBP, the EURCAD from the June low takes the shape of a head and shoulders continuation pattern. Also like the EURCAD, it is unclear if 13776 is the top of the right shoulder. A move above there would suggest a test of 14000 before price attempts to carve out a top. Coming under 13256 would indicate that 13776 is most likely the top.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

03-09-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD rally from 12925 is the strongest since May and suggests that an important low is in place. A support line is holding as is the 20 day average (this is support near 13615). Trade above 13878 would signal an end to the series of lower highs but also encounter the 200 day average. I am bullish as long as price is above 13502. Under there would give scope to a drop under 13300.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-09-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The push above 11566 sets sights on a measured objective (100% extension) at 11703. This level intersects with a corrective channel line over the next several days. The bearish pivot is 11252 and 11360-11400 is now support (20 day average and former resistance).

British Pound / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

03-09-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY found support at near its 50 and 200 day averages at the end of February and is now above the 20 day average. Trend indicators are bullish but there is near term bearish potential as long as price is below 13551. The decline from there is an impulse and the subsequent advance is a clear 3 wave pattern. A small head and shoulder’s top is evident since the beginning of March as well.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

03-09-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A choppy uptrend remains intact for the CADJPY as long as price is above 8423 (moved up from 8264). A trendline just above current price and the channel line are potential resistance levels as is 8644 (50% retracement from 2010 high).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

03-09-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The slight new high satisfies minimum expectations for wave v of the diagonal from 7266.” Near term, the decline is not a clear 5 and trendline support has held so additional upside remains favored towards the upward sloping diagonal line near 8600. A drop below 8261 would suggest that a top is in place.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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