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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-02-25 23:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

100.90

103.86

108.09

110.41

111.68

115.28

118.23

122.46

GBPJPY

UP

120.28

123.02

127.18

129.21

130.64

134.09

136.83

140.99

CADJPY

UP

77.37

79.38

80.66

82.30

83.04

83.95

85.96

87.24

AUDJPY

UP

78.32

79.64

80.72

81.92

82.16

83.12

84.44

85.53

EURGBP

DN

0.7945

0.8115

0.8332

0.8478

0.8526

0.8720

0.8889

0.9107

EURCAD

UP

1.2060

1.2418

1.3061

1.3276

1.3561

1.4061

1.4419

1.5062

EURAUD

UP

1.2198

1.2564

1.3146

1.3404

1.3619

1.4093

1.4459

1.5040

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

110.82

111.45

112.66

113.00

113.58

114.49

115.12

116.33

GBPJPY

UP

131.37

132.27

133.72

134.34

134.89

136.06

136.96

138.41

CADJPY

UP

131.37

132.27

133.72

134.34

134.89

136.06

136.96

138.41

AUDJPY

UP

82.43

82.85

83.60

83.87

84.19

84.78

85.21

85.95

EURGBP

DN

0.8260

0.8308

0.8365

0.8407

0.8417

0.8470

0.8517

0.8574

EURCAD

UP

1.3063

1.3160

1.3333

1.3391

1.3467

1.3602

1.3699

1.3872

EURAUD

DN

1.3198

1.3300

1.3397

1.3496

1.3502

1.3595

1.3698

1.3794

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

02-25-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

As long as the EURGBP is below 8672, there is potential for a drop below 8066 and possibly a test of the downward sloping line drawn off of the June 2009 and June 2010 lows (maybe we’ll get there in June 2011-the line in June 2011 is at about 7730). I wrote Wednesday to “allow for a pop above 8531 in order to complete a small flat.” The EURGBP reversed today just shy of 8600. This is a critical juncture as the yield differential is at its highest since the January top. Trading above 8672 would shift focus to a Fibonacci extension at 8742. A negative 20-50 day cross registered today.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

02-25-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The decline from the October high is an impulse (5 waves), therefore the larger trend is viewed as down. The rally into Wednesday’s top may have completed a small second wave as a flat correction. A potential 3rd wave is not to be ignored.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

02-25-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The rally from 12925 has unfolded as an impulse (5 waves) and broken above the upper diagonal line but the advance could also complete a flat. Weakness from 13878 found support at the 61.8% retracement and 50 day average but today’s sharp decline leaves the rally from 13302 in 3 waves and at risk of being broken. 13209 is the 100% extension of the decline from 13878 and thus potential support. Trading above 13878 is needed to suggest that the larger trend has reversed.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-25-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

To review, the EURJPY rally from 10681 consists of 2 equal legs, which is common for corrective moves. The slight new high on Tuesday may have completed a complex correction. The key level for bears is 11566. A push above there would shift focus to the February 2010 low near 120. Tuesday’s key reversal is noteworthy as previous instances indicated tops in October and November.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

02-25-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY has plummeted from last Friday’s high and the decline is in 5 waves. The implications are for a corrective rally before weakness resumes. Resistance begins at 13246 and extends to 13324. 12950, support in January and November, is a level to watch on the downside. I favor selling a rally into resistance.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

02-25-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A choppy uptrend remains intact for the CADJPY as long as price is above 8147. Price has plunged over recent days but found support at the 50 day average. Additional support would be the support line extended off of the November and January lows. Unlike the GBPJPY, the CADJPY decline is no in 5 waves so the pair may continue to new highs.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-25-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The slight new high satisfies minimum expectations for wave v of the diagonal from 7266.” Near term, the decline is not a clear 5 and trendline support has held so additional upside remains favored towards the upward sloping diagonal line near 8600.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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